Saturday, April 26, 2014

Sunday's Forecast & Early Look at Work Week Storm Potential

Sunday is shaping up to be a "decent" weather day.  Most will stay dry as we only see a spotty shower or two Sunday morning mainly north of Baton Rouge and iso'd afternoon showers across the entire WAFB viewing area.  The bigger weather issue may in fact be winds.  Windy conditions will continue Sunday with gusts as high as 30-35 mph.

The winds are in response to an approaching storm system.  This storm system has become a national story because of its potential for severe weather across many states over many days.

Severe Weather Risk 7 AM Monday - 7 AM Tuesday

The Storm Prediction Center is responsible for issuing the official risk for severe weather.  Saturday through Wednesday SPC has issued a slight risk for severe weather for 22 states.  The graphic above depicts the risk for severe weather from Monday morning into Tuesday morning.  The entire WAFB viewing area is under a slight risk for severe weather.  The moderate risk (red oval) stays well to the north.  The best chance we see anything on the strong to severe side would be late Monday (7PM) into early Tuesday (7AM).

Severe Weather Risk 7 AM Tuesday - 7 AM Wednesday

During the day on Tuesday the risk of severe weather stays in parts of the viewing area.  This will be as a cold front moves through the area.  The threat for severe weather ends for good once the front moves through which should be Tuesday evening.

As of today the forecast doesn't look very bad for SE Louisiana as it pertains to severe weather.  We look to have a decent cap to the atmosphere which would inhibit strong t-storms from forming.

Rising warm air helps to create energy for storms.  If a layer of warm air sits atop a shallow layer of cold air this starves storms of possible energy.  *At this time* this cap is expected to exist Sunday and again on Monday.

On Tuesday once the cold front gets a little closer it should erode the cap on the atmosphere.  That doesn't mean we are guaranteed to see any severe weather, just that the possibility will exist with other needed factors present.

With this event still a few days out things can easily change.  So stay tuned for future updates.

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