Sunday, April 13, 2014

Thoughts on Severe Weather Threat for Monday

Just one week ago we were under the gun for severe weather that rolled through the area.  Once again it looks like there is some potential for severe weather.  In fact the WAFB viewing area may see two separate rounds of severe weather potential Monday.

Currently (as of 9 PM) the current watch boxes extend into NW Louisiana.  The Tornado Watch includes Alexandria and Shreveport until 12 AM.  Weather models have indicated a possibility for some severe weather late tonight into early Monday morning for areas north of Baton Rouge.

As a result the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk for severe weather in those areas.  It seems though that the higher resolution weather models (NAM, HRRR, PrecisionCast) keep things fairly quiet over the stateline in our SW Mississippi counties.  So the potential for widespread severe weather appears very low at this time.  But we still can't completely rule out one rogue storm or two moving through this area early Monday morning.  Timing would be 4AM-8AM.  The weather risks would be damaging winds, and iso'd tornadoes.

But we aren't done with the threat of severe weather after Monday morning.  A cold front will be pushing into the area late Monday during the evening hours.  Ahead of that front could be a squall line which could contain strong damaging winds and large hail.  The Storm Prediction Center has put the entire WAFB viewing area under a slight risk for severe weather Monday afternoon and evening.

The good news, it appears, is that once again severe weather potential should not be all that widespread and stay scattered in nature.  Also we shouldn't have to worry about tornadoes as the needed ingredients just don't look to be available.  Titan 9 PrecisionCast is indicating a broken squall line pushing through metro Baton Rouge sometime during Monday evening.  Majority of our weather model guidance agrees with this.  The window for possible severe storms in the WAFB viewing area looks to be around 3PM-10PM Monday.

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