Wednesday, July 23, 2014

- afternoon showers and storms will subside into the evening
- rain chances decreasing in the coming days
- “Goodbye” to T.D. #2
The upper low that we’ve been tracking the past few days made its way over southeast Louisiana today, bringing better rain chances with it. While most of the action was along the coast and over the coastal waters this morning, daytime heating added just enough “umph!” during the afternoon to join up with the low and kick-off scattered afternoon showers and storms over the region. We expect the rains to subside into the evening as we lose the solar energy, with a quiet night for most WAFB neighborhoods.
After a mainly-dry start to the day with morning lows in the low 70°s, afternoon showers and a few t-storms return to the viewing area for Thursday. But unlike earlier today, we’ll set rain chances for Thursday at only 30% or so -- less coverage in general. The rationale is that the upper-level low currently nearly overhead will shift a bit to the southwest -- and more importantly – will become “stretched” and less defined. In effect, it will lose its impact on the local weather, allowing the broad upper-level ridge over New Mexico and west Texas to re-expand eastward and become a more dominant factor in our regional weather.
Since we’ll still be on the eastern fringe of the upper-high rather that underneath it, the ridge won’t shutoff rain chances, but it will inhibit development on Thursday and become even more dominant for Friday and the weekend.
As a result, we’ll go with rain chances at 20% or less for Friday, Saturday and Sunday - - and possibly include Monday too. But you know the drill: high-pressure aloft (upper-level ridges) mean less clouds and reduced rain chances, but the increased sunshine usually means a bit of a warm-up. We’re expecting low to mid 70°s for morning starts by Friday and into the weekend, with afternoon highs in the low 90°s for most WAFB communities, while a few could sneak into the mid 90°s on Saturday and Sunday.
“Goodbye, T.D. #2 … and good riddance too!” T.D. #2 succumbed to wind shear and ‘dry’ air and was downgraded to a remnant low at 10am this morning. While #2’s “bubble” of clouds is still evident on satellite imagery, the associated convection (thunderstorm activity) has faded and there is no evidence of a low-level circulation. The end of T.D. #2 came a little more quickly than had been expected by the National Hurricane Center experts, but as you recall there was never any perceive threat for the Gulf of Mexico. But let’s remember, we are still early in the Hurricane Season, and nearly 70% of Louisiana’s past tropical ‘visitors’ came during August and September.

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