Sunday, July 6, 2014

Sunday (7/6) Tropical Update

Here is your tropical update for South Louisiana for July 6th, 2014.

Eyes across the Eastern Seaboard were on Arthur this 4th of July.  But Arthur is no more and no longer a concern.  But Arthur was climatalogically early.  On average we see our first named storm July 9th.  We also see our first hurricane on average August 10th.  Arthur beat both of those averages.  This is not to say that the early season projections of a less active / normal season are incorrect though.

As we move into July the formation zones for tropical disturbances doesn't change much.

The Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean and Western Atlantic are still prime areas for development.  What has changed is a farther north are in the Western Atlantic and now we look to the Eastern Caribbean Sea too.

Currently an area of low pressure sits off the coast of Georgia / Florida.  High wind shear should hamper any true development of this system.  The National Hurricane Center is giving this low pressure area a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.  That is about the true window this system has to become anything.  This system will take a similar track to Arthur moving north away from the Gulf of Mexico.

Our Tropical PrecisionCast shows that by 11 AM Monday a weak area of low pressure will sit off the coast of North Carolina.  The system then weakens as it moves into a more hostile environment in the northern Atlantic on Tuesday.

10 DAY OUTLOOK: ***(DISCLAIMER: 10 day outlook is a long range forecast and can change rapidly and should NOT be accepted as "gospel" truth but only a small possibility and something to keep an eye on over next several days.)***
The long range models indicate a quiet outlook minus this system previously discussed.  In other words no new systems are expected/indicated.

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