Thursday, August 28, 2014

Good Rain Chances for the Holiday Weekend

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- Scattered rains for Friday afternoon, wetter for Saturday & Sunday 
- still waiting for 98L to move inland into Texas

We’ll start with a look again at 98L, that area of disturbed weather spinning east of Brownsville. It has been slow to move but appears to have finally moved onto the Texas coast as of the mid-afternoon. Although we’re still seeing some storms associated with it over the western Gulf, development chances for a tropical cyclone now appear to be “zero.” However, given the time of year and the warm Gulf waters, we’re not ready to declare 98L officially dead until it is fully inland later this evening.

It has been another mostly-dry day for the WAFB viewing area with rain activity occurring well to our west. However, an east-to-SE flow has become re-established over the viewing area today, bringing in more Gulf moisture. The enhanced humidity, working with daytime heating, popped a few afternoon showers and t-storms, but today’s sun/cloud mix helped slow the mid-day warm-up. What rain is out there this afternoon will subside into the evening, with partly-to-mostly cloudy skies expected overnight and into Friday morning.

Friday’s morning commute should be a dry one -- with the exception of a possible shower or two closer to the coast. Plan on Red Stick temperatures in the mid 70°s around sunrise. Temperatures should climb to 90° or above for most WAFB neighborhoods before Friday’s scattered afternoon showers and t-storms knock back the daytime heat. We’re calling for a 50-50 rain chance on Friday afternoon for the viewing area -- so be ready to hit some pockets of rain during the Friday evening drive home. 

Friday’s rains will again subside into the evening, but we’re going to carry isolated rains in the overnight and early Saturday outlook. By mid-day Saturday, we’re going with widespread rains for our forecast, setting Saturday’s rain chances at 70% or better. These probably won’t be all-day continuous rains, but be ready for on-and-off showers and storms throughout the better part of the day. Saturday’s wet weather should keep daytime highs in the 80°s rather than the 90°s. unfortunately, the next day doesn’t look a whole lot drier either: we’re calling for a 60% rain on Sunday with highs near 90°.

For Monday, Labor Day, we’ll ease back on the rain chances to around 40% -- an improvement over the weekend numbers but still the scattered afternoon variety of Louisiana summer weather. And for next week’s Tuesday-thru-Thursday window, we’re keeping rain chances in the 30% to 40% range for each day.

Elsewhere, ‘Category 1’ Cristobal shows no signs of weakening just yet; in fact, there remains a chance that Cristobal could actually get a little stronger before ‘he’ finally begins his transition to a non-tropical system in the North Atlantic. We’re still watching a broad west-to-east oriented low-pressure belt stretching from the central Caribbean to the tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. While there is no imminent threat for development, this area needs to be watched as it moves to the west in the coming days. Some of our computer guidance is hinting at potential development early next week over the western Caribbean or southern Gulf. And lastly, although the NHC experts are less “bullish” about it than they were just a day or two ago, they are still watching a tropical wave about to enter the eastern Atlantic off of West Africa.

And then there’s football.

For south Louisiana high schools, be ready for a little rain during Friday night’s jamborees, although we expect the showers to steadily subside through the evening. As for Saturday’s big college contests in Houston, Lafayette and Hammond, afternoon tailgaters will want to have the rain-gear on the ready wherever they are. For the Tigers in Houston against Wisconsin, the good news is that the ‘lid’ will be closed on Reliant Stadium for the match-up with Wisconsin (8pm kick-off). But for the Jaguar Nation visiting ULL in Acadiana (6pm) and for the SLU Lions fans enjoying their home opener at Strawberry Field (7pm), scattered rains are likely to still be dotting the south Louisiana landscape at “first whistle” and lingering for much of the respective first halves.


  1. Y'all are the most accurate in town. I had a great BBQ despite the rain.

    1. Thanks, Rose...glad you made the most of a soggy day!