Sunday, August 10, 2014

Sunday (8/10) Tropical Update

Here is your tropical update for South Louisiana for August 10th, 2014.

Bertha has come and gone becoming the season's second hurricane.  So far the 2014 Atlantic Season has seen 2 hurricanes and 1 tropical depression.  A new tropical wave and broad area of low pressure has just rolled off the African Coast.

The wave has currently been given a 10% chance for development in the next 2 days by the National Hurricane Center.  A bit more ominous news is that the NHC says it has a 40% chance for development over the next 5 days.  In other words this system will be very slow to develop.

This system is so far out in the Atlantic it is not worth getting worked up about it.  Here's the projected path according to the early weather guidance models:

Looking at the timeline you can see the cluster of models putting it just north of the Lesser Antilles have it there 6 days from now!  The shorter lined models are indicating this system won't survive the trip across the Central Atlantic.  That would be the best news.  Also working in our favor is that our more reliable weather guidance models (GFS & ECMWF) barely pick up on this wave and don't really develop it.  Even the typical hyperactive Canadian model (CMC) doesn't even develop this system as it moves west.

Image Credit: UCAR

The models that do develop this system tend to show a slow development trend.  Only three models show hurricane status by day 5, two others show tropical storm status by day 5, and the last two show the system falling apart sooner than day 5.

Bottom Line:
1) Nothing to even remotely worry about.
2) Will be something that is very slow to develop.
3) Still over a week and half away from even getting close to the US (if it even survives).

10 DAY OUTLOOK: ***(DISCLAIMER: 10 day outlook is a long range forecast and can change rapidly and should NOT be accepted as "gospel" truth but only a small possibility and something to keep an eye on over next several days.)***
A possible sign that things may start to get a little more active is the fact that one long range model the GFS shows a series of tropical waves rolling off the African coast from day 5 to 10.  At this time it doesn't really develop any of them into anything tropical.  But we may have to watch this area a bit more closely over the coming weeks as we move into peak season.

All models indicate things remaining quiet in terms of potential tropical development closer to home in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

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