Sunday, August 3, 2014

Sunday (8/3) Tropical Update

Here is your tropical update for South Louisiana for August 3rd, 2014.

The only game in town (Atlantic Basin) remains Tropical Storm Bertha.

An open wave sits off the coast of Florida but it should be absorbed by a trough exiting off the East Coast.  This trough will help steer Bertha over the next several days.

For now Bertha remains a fairly poorly organized weak Tropical Storm.

It started to get better organized earlier this morning but has done little in strengthening or organization in the last several hours.  Bertha sits just north of the Turks and Caicos island chain.  Bertha has sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving NW at 18 mph.

The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Bertha to take a turn more to the North tonight into early Monday morning.  Bertha is expected to enter a more favorable environment for development and could reach hurricane status during the next 48-72 hours.  That would make Bertha the 2nd hurricane of the Atlantic 2014 Season.  Climatologically speaking we typically don't see our second hurricane until August 28th.

Obviously Bertha poses no problems or issues for the Gulf South.

10 DAY OUTLOOK: ***(DISCLAIMER: 10 day outlook is a long range forecast and can change rapidly and should NOT be accepted as "gospel" truth but only a small possibility and something to keep an eye on over next several days.)***
Long range weather model guidance remains quiet over this time period.  No other tropical cyclone development is expected.  Dry air and strong wind shear still exists over portions of the Eastern and Central Atlantic as well as high shear across the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

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