Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Rain Tonight, Cool & Dry Weekend

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- mainly light rains later tonight and early Thursday
- cooler, stays dry for Friday & the weekend

The front that we’ve been waiting on all week finally gets here by early tomorrow morning. Unfortunately, if you were expecting -- or hoping for -- a good soaking, it looks like you are out of luck. Today’s rains over East Texas have been less than impressive ... and the system will weaken even more before getting into our area. 

We’ll call for scattered rains tonight, with most of them on the ‘light’ side. If some of us do hear a rumble or two of thunder, they will certainly be very few and far between. We expect to see rain totals show a tapering trend from west-to-east: the way things are looking right now, you’ll be lucky to get as much as one-tenth of an inch of rain between now and Thursday morning. 

In fact, some of you may see little more than a sprinkle and there will be those with little or no rain whatsoever, especially to the southeast and south of metro Baton Rouge.

Not what most of us were hoping for -- and this could set the stage for a downgrade to “official” drought conditions (based on the U.S. Weekly Drought Monitor) for some WAFB communities by next week. If we don’t get any significant rain in the next 12-24 hours, the next chance of measurable rain doesn’t appear until almost the middle of next week.

The front looks like it slips through metro BR near or just a little before sunrise. So some of us should expect scattered light rains for the morning drive with the rains coming to an end for all WAFB communities by mid-morning or so. We’re posting Thursday morning lows for the Capital City region in the low 60°s. Skies will slowly clear through the day, with highs reaching the mid 70°s for Baton Rouge.

Skies should be just about completely clear by Thursday evening, allowing for a substantial cool-off overnight and into early Friday. We’re calling for a Friday morning start in the mid 40°s with sunny skies and a high on Friday in the mid to upper 60°s -- definitely cooler ... but not a true Canadian blast. We’ll stay with lows in the low to mid 40°s for Saturday and Sunday mornings with highs in the mid to upper 60°s for both days.

A follow-up, weak front slides through the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into the early hours on Sunday, but it will only have a limited impact -- a few clouds for Saturday evening and overnight into early Sunday with maybe a drop in temperatures of one to two degrees for Sunday, but that’s about it. We’re not expecting any rain with that weekend frontal passage.

Highs return to the 70°s for early next week, with limited rain chances currently posted for the next anticipated front -- late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

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