Monday, November 3, 2014

Warming Trend Continues on Tuesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- staying dry through Wednesday morning
- frontal rains late Wednesday into early Thursday

Okay .. it may take a few days to get used to the fact that it’s dark by the 6PM newscast ...

Today marked three straight days with morning lows in the 30°s for much of the WAFB viewing area ... although a look back at regional reports shows that just about everyone dodged the freeze on Sunday morning.

We say ‘goodbye’ to the 30°s for a while -- in fact, this afternoon began a mini-warming trend that lasts through Wednesday. After this morning’s low in the upper 30°s for Baton Rouge, tomorrow starts out with lows in the 50°s and we're expecting morning minimums in the 60°s for many WAFB communities by Wednesday. We’re calling for Baton Rouge area highs in the upper 70°s for Tuesday under a sun/cloud mix and highs up in the upper 70°s to around 80° for Wednesday.

It looks like our prolonged run of rain-free days will come to an end on Wednesday and Thursday as our next front pushes through the viewing area. Frankly, most of us can use a good rain, so the expected 0.5” to 1.0” rains will be welcomed. We’ve got the rains moving into the area during the latter half of the day on Wednesday and extending into Thursday morning. The models are still struggling a bit with the exact timing, in part because the front looks like it will slow its forward progress as it approaches the lower Mississippi River Valley.

That loss of forward momentum looks like it will be accompanied by a loss in frontal energy, accounting for the relatively modest rain totals that we are currently projecting. In addition, at least for the time being, the loss of energy will mean little in the way of active or severe weather. We won’t rule out a few thunderstorms as the front works its way across the region but nothing widespread -- we don’t anticipate any watches for our area at this time. (Of course, we’ll keep an eye out for any changes.)

The rains could linger into Thursday’s morning commute but skies should begin clearing by the latter half of the day. Friday will be cooler, but not a major cool-down like we saw over the past weekend.

Another front makes its way through the region late Saturday into early Sunday. We won’t say “no rain” with the weekend front but it looks like it will be a mostly-dry passage that simply reinforces the cooler air that arrives on Thursday and Friday. And so, in case you are wondering, the weather is looking pretty good in ‘Death Valley’ for Saturday Night (LSU vs. Alabama) and ‘Up on the Bluff’ (Southern vs. Texas Southern) -- only a very slight chance of an evening shower under otherwise partly cloudy skies.

All quiet in the tropics …

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