Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Grab the Umbrellas & Jackets!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:

- rain and cooler too for Thursday & Friday
- sunshine is back for the weekend

Today was yet another “spring-like” day in this run of January beauties, and there were fewer clouds today than we expected too.

But all good things must end, and this run of weather ends tonight.

Clouds will be returning later this evening and overnight with cloudy skies expected for Thursday morning. We could even see a couple of showers for the early morning commute as we begin the day in the upper 40°s for the Capital City. But as we move towards mid-day and the afternoon, rain chances climb quickly, with just about everyone getting rain for the afternoon and evening.

The bulk of the rain over the next 48 hours comes on Thursday afternoon and into the evening, but we’ll still have some areas of light rain and showers extending into Friday. Rains should be about done for everyone by, if not before, Friday afternoon but clouds will linger into Friday night.

What’s more, after this recent run of days in the upper 60°s to low 70°s, afternoon temperatures take a big nosedive, topping out in the low to mid 50°s for many WAFB neighborhoods on Thursday. Many won’t even reach the 50°s on Friday after a Friday morning start in the low 40°s.

The rain over the next two days will be courtesy of two features: a surface low tracking west-to-east across the northern Gulf working with an upper-level low and associated upper-trough moving from west-to-east to our north. The Gulf low will help supply the moisture with the upper-low and trough provide added lift and pull the Gulf moisture inland.

We’re looking for 1” to 2” of rain for most WAFB communities over the two days, with the vast majority of that falling on Thursday. There is little or no threat for severe weather; in fact, any thunderstorms that form will likely be limited to the coast and over the Gulf waters.

We’ll sweep the wet mess out, leaving us with mainly sunny skies for the weekend but it stays cool as the upper trough pulls Canadian air down into the lower Mississippi Valley. Saturday morning lows will get down into the low to mid 30°s -- a light freeze will be possible for areas north of the Capital City. It does get a little warmer under the sunshine for Saturday afternoon, with most WAFB neighborhoods in the 50°s. For Sunday, it’s the mid 30°s for the sunrise start and highs around 60° or so under sunny skies.

Our extended forecast beyond the weekend remains mainly sunny through at least mid-week.

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