Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Staying Under the Clouds!

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB First Alert Quickcast:
- clouds remain, colder tonight
- a little rain returns for late Wednesday into early Thursday
- modest warming over the weekend

A tendency towards clouds will persist into the first half of Thursday, with a chance of mainly-light rain very late Wednesday into early Thursday. In addition, temperatures will remain below-average through Saturday morning before moderating just in time for some weekend fun.

Northerly flow at low levels will keep things cool for the next several days. In fact, were it not for the clouds, metro Baton Rouge would probably get a brief, light freeze for tomorrow’s wake-up. However, Pacific moisture at the mid/upper-levels is being chilled from below by the surface cold air from the north, and that should keep a decent cloud deck in place over our region through tonight and Wednesday. Fortunately, although the surface air is chilly and dry, the cloud deck above should offer sufficient “insulation” to keep most of us above-freezing tonight and into Wednesday morning. The possible exceptions would be WAFB communities near and north of the LA/MS border: they might flirt with a brief wake-up freeze.

We could see some peaks of sunshine on Wednesday, but we’re thinking a mostly-cloudy to cloudy day as the rule with highs in the low 50°s for metro BR. Heading into late Wednesday, we’ll introduce modest rain chances that will linger into Thursday morning, For now, let’s call it a 50% chance from late Wednesday evening into late Thursday morning for the Capital City -- running a little lower for our more northern viewers and running 60% or better closer to the coast. 

Low pressure over the Gulf will be the rainmaker, but with the main storm energy remains well to our south and out over the open waters: that means generally-light “overrunning” rains for most or all of us. While some may hear a rumble or two along the coast, we don’t expect any active weather and most rain accumulations should be under a quarter-inch. In fact, some along and north of the LA/MS state line may see little if any measurable rain.

Any rain that does fall should be over before the lunch hour on Thursday, with the clouds clearing through the afternoon. Thursday morning’s clouds and scattered rains should keep Red Stick area lows in the upper 30°s to low 40°s. And while skies should be clearing through the afternoon, highs on Thursday will top-out in the low 50°s for Baton Rouge.

We’re currently calling for a low of 33° for Metro AP on Friday morning, but with the chilly northerly flow still in place and generally clear skies for Friday morning, that has the look of a light, brief wake-up freeze -- at least for those living north and east of metro BR. Sunshine through the day should take Friday highs into the upper 50°s -- possibly around 60° for some -- on Friday afternoon. And while many of us will drop back down into the mid 30°s for Saturday’s sunrise, just about everyone sees highs climb into the 60°s under fair to partly-cloudy skies for Saturday afternoon.

And for now, Sunday looks pretty good too: a sun/cloud mix through the day with morning lows in the 40°s and afternoon highs in the mid 60°s -- a welcomed dry and mild January weekend!

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