Sunday, April 5, 2015

Did the Easter Bunny Bring You an Umbrella?

Easter Sunday WAFB First Alert Quickcast:
- showers subsiding later tonight
- scattered showers & t-storms return for Monday
- looks like afternoon highs in the 80°s all week
It was a mixed bag weatherwise this past weekend: a few showers for Saturday’s wake-up but Saturday afternoon turned into a true spring beauty.  And Easter morning’s weather was on the cool side and cooperated nicely for sunrise services and those morning backyard Easter Egg Hunts, but then rains returned for the afternoon and evening -- causing some gatherings to scramble and adjust their outdoor grilling and mudbug plans.
We had been talking about isolated to scattered rains for Sunday afternoon, but the rainmaking disturbance that developed through the day was a bit better developed than we had expected.  As a result, coverage was greater and the rains hung around longer than anticipated.  While there were no severe storms on Easter Sunday, a couple of t-storms produces significant amounts of lightning, locally-heavy downpours, gusty winds and even a little hail.
The core of today’s disturbance will continue moving east this evening and tonight, allowing the rains to subside.  However, a warm front lifting out of the Gulf will keep our weather just a bit unsettled through the night and into Monday morning.  We’ll keep isolated showers in the overnight and wake-up forecast for the WAFB viewing area.  In addition, with the warm front lifting through the BR metro area early Monday, we can say goodbye to the cooler weather we enjoyed over the weekend.  It’s back to muggy mornings in the 60°s and afternoons in the 80°s for the coming week.
With WAFB communities positioned south of the warm front by Monday afternoon, that puts us in the “warm sector” -- that means not just 80°s for afternoon highs but also a return of Gulf humidity.  The moist air will interact with daytime heating and generate scattered showers and t-storms for Monday afternoon: we’re going with rain chances at about 40% for the Capital City.  (Remember, 40% means that less than half of us will receive measureable rainfall.)
We’re thinking a drier pair of days for Tuesday and Wednesday and then a return to scattered showers for Thursday.  After that, almost all of guidance gets very wet for Friday into Saturday, with a mixed-bag of outlooks for Sunday.  For now, we’ll go with “wet” for all three days and see how the models swing, tweak and adjust in the coming days.

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