Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Mainly Dry Again for Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

April 7th First Alert Quickcast:

- areas of fog return for Wednesday morning
- mainly dry for Wednesday
- rain likely for Friday & the weekend

We started the day with areas of fog, with a Dense Fog Advisory in effect during the morning for a number of parishes. The fog and low clouds were somewhat slow to clear through the morning, but by the afternoon we had shifted to partly cloudy skies with highs in the 80°s with very little showing up on Doppler radar.

Our Wednesday forecast calls for a near repeat of Tuesday’s weather: areas of fog for the morning, becoming dense in some areas and potentially prompting another round of Advisories. Then it’s back to the mid to upper 80°s for Wednesday afternoon with spotty showers, at best. 

You’ve probably noticed a bit of a muggy feel to the air. Our dew point temperatures have been running in the mid and upper 60°s since Tuesday and are likely to stay there for the next few days as flow off the Gulf has added low-level moisture to the air. While dew points in the 60°s may not be truly “summerlike,” they are well above normal for early April -- average dew points at this time of year are in the mid to upper 50°s.

For Thursday, we’ll up the rain chances to 20% to 30% for the afternoon, so most WAFB neighborhoods remain dry as highs again return to the mid 80°s. But after that, our guidance is pointing to a run of “wet” days extending from Friday right into next week.

A cold front arrives on Friday, with showers and t-storms likely by the afternoon. It’s still early, but we’ll want to keep watch for the potential for a few strong to severe storms on Friday too.

Unfortunately, rather than simply sweep through the region and leave us with a cooler and less-humid weekend, our guidance is suggesting that the front slows, stalls and then retreats to the north as a warm front: that’s a recipe for a wet Saturday and Sunday.

To add to the wet forecast, the meandering front will get some added help from eastbound disturbances. Of the three days, Friday appears to be the most active in terms of storms but most WAFB communities are likely to deal with showers and a few storms for all three days. For the time being, Saturday and Sunday don’t appear to be all-day washouts … but it’s too early to try and nail down the timing of wet and dry spells through the weekend.

In fact, we’re keeping scattered-to-likely rains in the Monday forecast with isolated-to-scattered rains in our Tuesday outlook. Given the forecasted wet spell, the NWS Weather Prediction Center is calling for 1” to 3” of rain by Tuesday for the WAFB viewing area, with the larger totals more likely north of the I-10/12 corridor.

No comments:

Post a Comment