Friday, April 17, 2015

Looks Wet Again for Saturday

April 17th Quickcast: 
- rains likely for Saturday morning 
- Flash Flood Watch extended through Saturday evening 
Believe it or not, I have had one person today tell me that they have not had enough rain this week and would like more. 
For the rest of us, today’s dry spell was greatly appreciated.  Not only did we see some welcomed sunshine, but the lack of rain almost everywhere allowed areas dealing with standing water to drain.  In addition, the lack of rain was helpful along our area rivers.  While the lower Tangipahoa River is experiencing some minor flood issues, it currently appears that no other local river gaging sites (except those on the Mississippi) will reach flood with this run of wet days.
However, that does not mean that we are done with the rain just yet.  While this evening will remain mainly-dry (I can’t rule out a spotty shower or two), most of us will be dealing with another round of rains by Saturday morning.  A large disturbance currently over central Texas -- where it has prompted Watches and Warnings -- is headed our way and should begin impacting the WAFB area in the early morning hours.  We’re expecting showers and t-storms as the stormy weather tracks from west-to-east across our region with the rains potentially extending into mid-day and the early afternoon.
Here is the satellite/radar composite as of 8:00pm Friday:
The threat of additional rain is enough to prompt the NWS to continue the Flash Flood Watch (FFW) into Saturday evening for all of south Louisiana.  In addition, as of this afternoon, the NWS has expanded the FFW to now include all areas across the Florida Parishes north of the I-12 corridor: up until today, those areas and our SW Mississippi viewers were not included in the FFW.
According to the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there will be a “Slight Risk” for severe weather on Saturday, mainly in the form of high winds and hail.  Although unlikely, tornadic storms cannot be ruled out, especially during the first half of the day.  While most of us will see 1" of rain or less, isolated totals of 2” or more will be possible.
Set Saturday’s rain chances at 80% for the entire day, although the most widespread action looks to occur during the morning and mid-day.  (With some luck, we could get a break from the rains by the mid to late afternoon hours.)  We’ll start the day in the upper 60°s around the Red Stick, with the daytime high topping out in the upper 70°s.
Here are the RPM PrecisionCast and the Hi-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) radar depictions estimated for 8:00am Saturday as of 8:00pm Friday:
For Sunday, we’ll back the rain chances down to the 30% to 50% range, although the SPC is still maintaining a “Slight Risk” for severe weather given the moist-and-unstable Gulf air that will remain in place.
But then finally, some good news for all of us … well, good news for all except for those that really think that they need more rain.  A spring cold front should push through the lower Mississippi Valley early Monday.  That front should sweep the humid Gulf air out of the area, at least for a few days, and mark the onset of a run of drier weather. 
For now, we’ll keep things dry through Wednesday, with scattered rains returning for the end of the work week.

No comments:

Post a Comment