Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Keep the Umbrella Handy!

Wednesday opened with some pre-dawn severe weather to our west, and the rains have been off and on for much of the day. Strong thunderstorms rolled through metro Baton Rouge just in time for the rush hour, prompting the issuance of a Severe T-Storm Warning. Nickel-sized hail was reported in Brusly and a wind gust to 44 mph was measured in Port Allen.

We are seeing some impressive rain totals in portions of the viewing area. Doppler radar estimates show well over 3” of rain and more over western sections of Wilkinson County since late Monday evening, with 2” to 3” over eastern parts of the county and extending into western Amite County. Doppler totals are also approaching 2” or more in sections of St. Landry and Pointe Coupee parishes, with many communities around the WAFB region getting an inch or more of rain over the past two days. For most, this is good news, as it takes another serious bite out of the recent drought conditions. (Admittedly, our viewers in SW Mississippi really don’t need any more rain for the time being, considering the double-digit January totals for many north of the state line!)

After a wet Wednesday, rain chances will drop off later this evening and overnight, but the moist Gulf air mass in place will set the stage for some substantial fog by Thursday morning. In fact, we could be seeing Fog Advisories issued later tonight.

A cool front to our north will likely become stationary on Thursday and begin backing northward as a warm front by Friday, keeping us in the “warm sector” for the coming days. That means more of this warm and humid weather (by winter standards) for the next few days, with highs in the 70°s through Saturday. With the unstable Gulf air mass in place, while rain won’t be much of an issue for Thursday, we’re going with a 50% to 60% chance of rain for Friday.

A storm system with a trailing cool front will get organized over the Panhandle region of Texas late Thursday into early Friday. As the Panhandle low moves to the NE, it will pull the cool front into Louisiana by Saturday, setting the stage for a stormy Saturday with rain probable on Sunday as well. We’re even keeping a modest rain chance in the forecast for early Monday before the wet weather exits the region.

Preliminary estimates suggest that our area could see as much as another 1” to 3” of rain between now and early Monday.

Tuesday looks good but the extended outlook suggests that another front could move into Louisiana by Wednesday.

No comments:

Post a Comment