Monday, February 20, 2012

Rising Rivers...Good-Looking Fat Tuesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

We’re still looking at river flooding along portions of the Amite and the lower Tangipahoa. 

The Amite at Denham Springs is nearing an expected crest of just over 31 feet this evening, and should be back below flood stage by Tuesday evening.  The Amite at Bayou Manchac is expected to rise above the 9.0ft flood stage tonight, peak at around 10.0ft early Wednesday morning, then fall below flood stage by late Wednesday evening.

The Tangipahoa at Robert has been in flood since Saturday, and is approaching the expected crest of about 18 feet.  A slow fall should begin Tuesday morning, with that gage currently expected to drop below the 15.0ft flood stage on Thursday afternoon or early evening.

More river stages and forecasts are available here:

While many of us are still looking at standing water following Saturday’s big rains, Monday’s weather cooperated fairly nicely, with highs in the 60°s.  And it looks even better for “Fat Tuesday” as we stay dry and warm-up a tad!  Get your bead-gathering gear ready for a very mild Mardi Gras Day!

After just some high, thin cirrus through most of Monday, mid-level clouds have returned to the WAFB viewing area during the late afternoon.  Those clouds will stay with us for the night and into Tuesday morning, and we could see a little fog developing for the early morning as well.  Look for Tuesday’s sun-up temps in the low 50°s.

We’re expecting a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day on Tuesday, but a southerly flow will mean a big warm-up, with highs climbing into the low to mid 70°s for the day.

We’ll bring a slight chance of rain into the forecast for Wednesday afternoon.  The models are differing a bit for Wednesday, with a couple of models suggesting decent rain chances (say, 30% to 40%) for the afternoon and evening, while our in-house Titan9 model keeps Wednesday mainly-dry.  For now, we’ll split the difference with a 20% to 30% rain chance for metro Baton Rouge, with slightly higher rain chances closer to the coast.

Thursday looks to be wet for most of us as a quick-moving Pacific cool front slides through the state late in the day.  We could see a few lingering showers and clouds very early on Friday, but skies should clear during by if not before the afternoon.  Highs will drop from the mid 70°s on Thursday to the upper 60°s for Friday.

And the upcoming weekend outlook?  For now, we see no problems there!  Saturday will be a little cooler, with highs in the low to mid 60°s but with plenty of sunshine, and Sunday looks partly cloudy with highs in the upper 60°s.  The way it looks right now, it will be a rain-free weekend!

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