Monday, February 27, 2012

Morning Fog, Warmer Next Couple of Days

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

With the thick clouds hanging on throughout the day, it didn’t get as warm as expected. In fact, some WAFB neighborhoods never made it into the 60°s, and the high at Metro Airport was a cool 61°F!

Visible satellite image from 4 p.m. showing low clouds covering most of the area.

Scattered showers -- in many cases, brief sprinkles at best -- dotted the WAFB area, but few locations received enough rain to even measure in the raingage! A couple of places in Terrebonne and Lafourche parishes may have seen as much as one-half-inch of rain today, but today's main rain and storm action was limited to the coastal margin and over the coastal waters.

Plenty of low-level moisture and relatively light winds will lead to the threat of locally dense fog over the next couple of mornings. In fact, fog has lingered just north of a warm front along the coast much of the day, with somewhat reduced visibilities even being reported farther inland.

We’ll keep a decent cloud deck in place through the night and set rain chances at around 20% for the overnight and early morning forecast. We’ll also maintain rain chances at 20% through the day on Tuesday under mostly cloudy skies. The biggest difference between Monday and Tuesday will be the afternoon temperatures as highs are expected to reach the upper 70°s for Tuesday afternoon!

As it often does, the work week forecast has needed some tweaking already. What looked like a “wet” week is now looking a bit drier, although certainly not rain-free.

We’ll remain in the nation’s “warm sector” in terms of the large-scale weather pattern over the next couple of days, with rain chances running in the 20% to 30% range for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday ... at the same time, highs for those three days will be running in the upper 70°s to around 80°!

An advancing cool front will work its way into NW Louisiana by Wednesday, but early indications are that it will stall and wash-out as it tries to cut across the Bayou State from Wednesday into Thursday.

Titan9 RPM model projection for 7 p.m. Wednesday. A cool front will likely stall just to our north, leading to small rain chances Wednesday and Thursday.

Our viewing area's next frontal passage is currently scheduled for a late Friday arrival. This system looks like it will be a “very fast mover,” entering the state from the northwest during the latter half of Friday and pushing out into the Gulf by or before dawn on Saturday. Still we’re giving this system a decent chance for producing rain in our region, with a few t-storms possible, during a 12-18 hour window.

But that should leave us with a decent Saturday afternoon and a good-looking Sunday!

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