Friday, February 3, 2012

More Rain on the Way

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Today’s weather was just another example of how different the weather can be even within Louisiana. While we had a few passing showers through the morning and afternoon, sections of SW and central Louisiana saw as much as 5” to 8” of rain according to Doppler radar estimates ... prompting a number of Flood Warnings in those areas.

For most of us, however, the rains were very modest, with a number of communities south and SE of Baton Rouge recording no measurable rain for the day (at least through 4PM).

In addition to the string of parish Flood Warnings, two Tornado Warnings were issued earlier in the afternoon for Avoyelles Parish, and a Severe T-Storm Warning was posted for Wilkinson County. Between 2PM and 4PM, we were watching a “training effect” of showers and t-storms -- a pattern where storms follow one after another along a similar path, potentially producing some very large rain accumulations. During that two-hour window, the “train tracks” eased slightly eastward, moving from Evangeline and Avoyelles parishes into St. Landry, northern Pointe Coupee and Wilkinson County. But as of 4PM, the storms seemed to be losing some of their punch ... thankfully!

We’ll keep a few showers in the evening and overnight forecast, with patchy fog expected for Saturday morning. Most of us will again see morning lows in the 60°s for Saturday’s wake-up -- far above normal for this time of year.

The forecast for Saturday remains a “wet” one, but not with the kind of bigger rain totals that we were anticipating a day or two ago. But still, with a forecast calling for a 60% to 70% chance of rain for the afternoon and evening, it could make for a dicey day for parades, like the afternoon parade in Walker (1PM) and the downtown BR Krewe of Jupiter & Juno parade Saturday evening (6PM).

A cool front slides through the state on Saturday, serving as the focus for the rain. Behind Saturday’s front, cooler air arrives.

Cooler -- but not winter cold, even by south Louisiana standards. After another day with highs in the 70°s for Saturday, our forecast calls for highs in the mid 60°s on Sunday, with highs in the 60°s all through the coming work week.

Sunday looks to be notably drier than we had forecasted earlier this week as well, as we’re keeping Sunday’s rain chances at 30% with the main chance occurring in the morning. Along with a run of cooler days, the forecast for the workweek also is a mostly dry forecast, with only modest rain chances on Wednesday and early Thursday.
Have a great weekend!

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