- Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta
- Feb 26, 2013
Our forecast remains
a “dry” one through the weekend and into next week, but as we’ve mentioned, most
of the upcoming rain-free days will be on the “cool side” even by late February
and early March standards.
A weak, low pressure
system will slide through the viewing area tomorrow afternoon and early
evening. At most it may bring some clouds, but those clear out during the
overnight into Thursday morning. We’ll get one more mild day, with highs on
Wednesday in the upper 60°s to near 70°, but it turns cooler for Thursday, with
highs for most of the WAFB viewing area only reaching the upper 50°s to low
60°s.
It will stay cool
through the weekend, with our current forecast keeping highs for most of us in
the 50°s through Sunday -- afternoon temps running about 10° or more below the
norms.
So maybe the biggest
weather question over the next several days is, “Just how cold will the weekend
morning’s get?”
We know that we’ll
get another dose of chilly continental air from Friday into Saturday. That not
only keeps the daylight hours cool over the weekend, but will push lows well
down into the 30°s for Saturday and Sunday mornings. For now, Sunday morning
looks to be the coldest of the two, with low 30°s likely for metro BR and even
lower temps north and east of the Capital City. In fact, some of our “northern”
viewers near the LA/MS state line could even get close to a freeze for Friday
morning, with a freeze for Saturday’s sunrise and lows in the upper 20°s by
Sunday morning!
Another freeze?
Well, truth is that we’ve been spoiled this winter in terms of temperatures.
For Metro Airport, we had just one freeze in November, four freezes in
December, a somewhat rare “freeze free” January. February will end "quiet" too, with just one brief, light freeze
this month (Feb 17).
That’s only 6 freezes this winter -- compared to an
“average” of about 20 or more freezes each winter for Baton Rouge.
In fact, a Baton
Rouge winter with just 6 freezes would tie the 1949-50 and 1930-31 winters for
the second “fewest” freezes since at least 1930! So what winter had the fewest freezes ever? The
1931-32 winter, with just three freezes days. (I’ll bet the mosquitoes were
huge that spring!)
And our Baton Rouge
statistics tell us that, on average, there is a 4-in-10 chance of a freeze on or
after March 1st. From what we see for the weekend, it looks like we’ll add to
our count of six winter freezes by at least one day, possibly two.
Besides, even if we
drop below freezing over the weekend, these won’t be long or ‘hard’ freezes ...
and with a March outlook that calls for a normal-to-warm month ahead, this may
be our last chance for a taste of winter chill.
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