Our morning sprinkles were courtesy of the strong upper-level flow out of the southwest, with the Pacific moisture riding over the cooler air near the surface. Even this afternoon, while many WAFB neighborhoods finally get some sunshine, clouds and a band of light rains continue over the southeastern coastal parishes.
The clouds will continue to clear through the evening and overnight, and the northwest winds will deliver more dry and cool continental air. By sunrise on Thursday -- Valentine’s Day -- many WAFB communities along and north of the I-10/12 corridor will have dipped into the upper 30°s! But with blue skies and sunshine through the day, temps will rebound nicely with metro BR highs reaching the low to mid 60°s for Thursday afternoon.
We’re going to enjoy a string of nice February weather right through the weekend. While we expect a pair of fronts to push across the lower Mississippi Valley -- one on Friday and the second on Saturday -- the atmosphere will be almost too dry to generate anything but clouds as the boundaries move through. We say “almost too dry,” so we’ll hedge our bets and allow for the possibility of spotty showers with both frontal passages. That means hardly anyone sees rain and what they do see will be little more than a sprinkle: no significant accumulations.
On the heels of the second front we’ll get a brief shot of noticeably colder air for Sunday morning. We’ve been talking about the possibility of a light freeze for Sunday morning through the week: the models appear a bit mixed on the idea right now. We’ll go with low to mid 30°s for metro Baton Rouge for Sunday’s sunrise temps, with a light freeze for areas north and east of BR. Sunshine on Sunday will warm things up quickly, however, with highs reaching the 60°s during the afternoon.
Our next rain-making front is scheduled to arrive sometime either very late Monday or early Tuesday. We’re calling for pre-frontal rains during the latter half of Monday, with rain likely late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some thunderstorms are expected with this front, but we’ll have to wait a couple of days before we can assess the “severe” threat.