Friday, February 8, 2013

Looking Good Saturday, Rains Returning Sunday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Friday morning clouds gave way to some afternoon sun, and all looks good for the evening.  We’ll go to mostly cloudy skies later tonight with BR-area temps easing down into the mid to upper 40°s by Saturday’s sunrise.  We may also see a little light patchy fog during the early morning near sun-up, but nothing like what some of you have seen the past few mornings.
Mother Nature cooperates for Saturday’s Spanish Town Parade: expect a sun/cloud mix through the afternoon.  Temps for the noon kick-off will be in the low to mid 60°s, climbing into the upper 60°s to around 70° by parade’s end.

Unfortunately, the weather turns very wet after that.  A storm system centered over the U.S. plains on Sunday will track eastward, bringing a strong cold front into the WAFB viewing area late Sunday into early Monday.  Although it’s still two days down the road, guidance shows that the ingredients are coming together for the development of strong to severe t-storms ahead of the advancing cold front, prompting the NWS Storm Prediction Center to include the WAFB viewing area within a “Slight Risk” zone for that time period.  The main severe weather threats will be damaging winds, but large hail and isolated tornadoes are also a possibility.

Although the front will push through metro BR by early Monday, it looks like it stalls along the coast rather than continuing to track to the east.  With a stationary front lingering along the coast into Tuesday, coupled with a series of upper-level disturbances passing overhead, we’ll be dealing with periods of rain through most of Monday and Tuesday.  Over the course of the three-day period, we could see some Weather Watcher rain totals in the 2” to 3” range, with isolated larger accumulations.
All the wet mess clears out by mid-day Wednesday, if not sooner, with a cooler and “drier” (less humid) air mass settling over the area for the remainder of the work week.

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