Monday, June 17, 2013

Better Chances for Rain This Week

Titan9 Doppler was showing a few showers on Monday afternoon with a couple of t-storms in the WAFB viewing region, but all was mainly quiet across the immediate BR metro area as of 3PM. We’ll keep isolated showers in the WAFB area forecast for the rest of the afternoon and early evening, then ending soon after sunset. 
No doubt about it, summer heat has really kicked in this month! Today marks the 8th straight day with highs at 90° or above at Metro Airport (BTR) and for some of you that run of heat has been essentially rain-free. In addition, we’ve got returning to the 90°s just about all week long.
For the trivia buffs ... BTR averages about 19-20 days every June with highs of 90° or more. Today marks the 11th day at 90° or more for this June. Based on BTR records since 1930:
. . . the most June days at or above 90°: all 30 days during June 2006 and June 1960
. . . the fewest June days at or above 90°: only 4 days during June 1983 and June 1961

As we’ve seen the past couple of days, rain chances will remain on the low side -- say around 20% to 30% -- for Tuesday. Fortunately, the upper-level “heat ridge” that dominated our weather over the weekend is weakening and retreating a bit to the west -- that should allow for better rain chances by Wednesday into Thursday. Set rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday in the 40% to 50% range -- and for many, the gardens and lawns could use a little rain.

It looks like upper-level ridging will return as early as Friday, and the will mean a drop in forecasted rain percentages for Friday through the upcoming weekend. But for the time being, we aren’t yet anticipating a return of the mid 90°s for the coming weekend.

For the College World Series, the Tigers take on the UNC Tarheels in an elimination match-up on Tuesday at 2:00PM. The weather cooperates at T.D. Ameritrade Stadium for Tuesday afternoon: mostly sunny to partly cloudy, game temps in the low 80°s with winds light and ranging from the ENE to the ESE.

In the tropics, the National Hurricane Center “upgraded” the vigorous tropical wave located over the Gulf of Honduras (NW Caribbean) to Tropical Depression #2 (TD #2). TD #2 is moving inland across Belize, headed towards northern Guatemala and the Yucatan. Given that it is moving over land, development is not an issue in the short term. However, the forecast guidance does take the system into the southern Bay of Campeche by Tuesday or Wednesday. At that point, conditions appear somewhat favorable for development -- and the National Hurricane Center currently shows the system briefly achieving tropical storm strength before its final landfall in Mexico. If TD #2 were to become a tropical storm, it would be named Barry.

A couple of other disorganized tropical waves are evident over the open tropical Atlantic, but none show imminent signs of organization.

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