Tuesday, June 4, 2013

Staying Hot, Isolated T-Storms

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

As of 4PM, we’re watching spotty showers on Titan9 Doppler over the Baton Rouge metro area, with some larger showers and a few lightning strikes well off to the east.  That all should end around sunset as we go to mainly fair skies tonight.  But the “muggies” will stay with us right into Wednesday morning with sunrise temps in the low 70°s.

We’ll keep rain chances at 20% for Wednesday afternoon, then up them to 30% for Thursday. 

A weak and diffuse quasi-stationary front has lingered over southeast Louisiana today, helping kick-up a few stronger storms around metro New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and over parts of the Pearl River basin.  That front will lift northward as a warm front over the next 24-36 hours -- at the same time, a cool front currently over the Southern Plains will slowly continue to head our way.  That front should be draped across Louisiana by early Friday, adding to the local instability and lift and pushing rain chances up into the 50-50 range for Friday afternoon.  Unfortunately, however, indications are that this cool front will wash-out over the weekend, which means no relief from the heat or humidity in our viewing area.

The Friday forecast could be a bit of an issue for the Super Regional at Alex Box, but the outlook is much better for Saturday -- and Sunday if needed.  We’re calling for only isolated afternoon showers for both weekend days, but you can bet both days will be hot and humid.

The only other big weather story for us: that mess in the southern Gulf.  Currently labeled as “Invest 91L,” it’s a broad and poorly-defined low pressure area with most of the associated convection located well to the east and southeast of the presumed zone of lowest pressure.  The National Hurricane Center is currently giving the area a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression (gets a “number”) or tropical storm (gets a “name”) over the next 48 hours.

Many of the forecast models are suggesting improved organization and strengthening in the coming days; at the same time, most of the models take the low pressure into Florida by Friday.

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