Thursday, June 13, 2013

Temps Remaining Above-Normal This Weekend

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Warmer-than-normal weather will persist for at least another three or four days -- afternoon temps in the 90°s coupled with an abundance of Gulf humidity will continue to push daily maximum Heat Index readings above 100° for many WAFB neighborhoods right through the weekend. 

Our forecast for Friday and the weekend remains virtually unchanged.  Mid/upper-level ridging will be the primary controller for our weather for Friday and Saturday, with the ridge starting to flatten (weaken) late Saturday into Sunday.  For most of us, hot-and-humid with little in the hopes of a cooling shower will be the rule for the next few days.

Although the guts of the upper ridge remains in place, it still looks like that “cool” front we’ve been advertising this week will indeed slide south during the latter half of the day Friday into early Saturday as a “backdoor” cool front.  Don’t expect much of a change though -- the front will add a few percentage points to rain chances on Friday and produce a very modest drop in dew points and the morning low for Saturday, but that’s about it.  Expect highs in the mid 90°s for both days.

We’ll go with a 20% rain chance on Friday, with only spotty showers for Saturday. 

As we mentioned, the outlook calls for a weakening of the ridge by Sunday.  Now we are not talking about a major change, but a less robust “cap” on the atmosphere which should allow for a few afternoon showers.  So let’s be generous and say isolated showers -- uh, maybe -- for Sunday afternoon. 

The forecast for next week stays on the “drier” side, with rain chances generally around 20% through the week.  But we also expect those daytime highs to back down into the low 90°s rather than the mid 90°s through the work week - - not a big change, but worth noting nonetheless.  And after a run of mid 90°s, low 90°s may not seem so bad?

As for the tropics, there are a couple of waves -- one to the east of the Lesser Antilles and another in the SW Caribbean -- but neither is showing any real threat for development at this point.

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