Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Looks 'Wetter' for Wednesday

They’ve had some heavy rains, strong storms and even some localized flooding in the northern parishes today, but for many of us in the WAFB viewing area, it has remained dry. True, we did have some passing showers and a few t-storms in our viewing area this afternoon, especially up along the LA/MS state line, but most of those were quick-moving and short-lived, producing little in terms of accumulations.
Even with today’s relatively quiet weather so far, we’ll keep a slight chance of rain in the evening and overnight forecast. We’ll also carry isolated showers in the forecast for the morning drive, then take Wednesday afternoon rain chances up to about 50-50.
The upper-level ridge that has been a dominating feature in our recent weather is finally breaking down. A cool front is sagging southward today and will stall over the northern half of our viewing area later tonight and early tomorrow. At the same time a series of mid/upper-level disturbances will continue to move west-to-east across the coastal states. Add in daytime heating and Gulf humidity and you can see why rain chances will be noticeably higher for Wednesday.
Somewhat surprisingly, however, the wetter pattern doesn’t hold on for long. We’ll drop rain chances for Thursday down to the 30% to 40% range, and drop it another 10% for Friday as a ridge attempts to become re-established over the eastern U.S. before the end of the work week. Heading into the weekend, we’ll keep isolated to scattered mainly-afternoon t-showers in the forecasts for both Saturday and Sunday.
Temps throughout the rest of the work week and into the weekend will run very near the norm for this time of year: low to mid 70°s for morning lows and low 90°s for afternoon highs.
Tropical Depression #2 (TD#2) continues to move over across Central America -- the latest position estimate puts the poorly-defined center over Mexico and not too far from the coastline to the Bay of Campeche. The current best-guess forecast track takes TD#2 over the southern Bay of Campeche by tomorrow and possibly remaining over the water until late Wednesday or early Thursday. Still, there is little opportunity for the depression to undergo much development before landfalling again on Thursday. Still, TD#2 may prove to be a proficient rainmaker for parts of Mexico, but the system offers no threat to U.S. interests.

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