Monday, May 21, 2012

Few Showers, Staying Warm

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Hot enough for you? Today's high temperature of 92° in Baton Rouge matches our hottest day so far this year. We also hit a high of 92° on May 6.

A weak front will sag into the viewing area this evening and then linger as a stationary front into Wednesday before retreating northward and dissipating.  While the lower and middle levels of the atmosphere are sufficiently unstable to fuel a few t-storms this afternoon and evening, this front will not provide enough lift to get widespread rains going.

After Tuesday, high pressure will once again take charge of our regional weather, and that means hot and mainly-dry days ahead.  In fact, while a stray shower here or there is possible through the work week, most neighborhoods will remain rain-free into the Memorial Day weekend.

We’ll have one fairly comfortable morning on Wednesday, but after that the humidity will add to the daytime heat and make it feel like summer!  We’re expecting morning lows in the upper 60°s to low 70°s from Thursday through Monday, with most neighborhoods reaching 90° or more on Wednesday and right through the “long” three-day weekend ahead!

In the expected, we’re bringing a slight chance of rain -- at 20% -- into Monday afternoon’s outlook.  So the “unofficial” start to the summer will be hot and mostly dry, just like the days leading into it!

In the tropics, an “early” ALBERTO continues to hold onto minimal tropical-storm strength: as of 4PM on Monday, ALBERTO continues to display maximum sustained winds near 40 mph.  ALBERTO is moving away from the U.S. Atlantic Coast and is expected to begin moving to the northeast within the next day.  In addition, the environment around ALBERTO continues to become more hostile for the tropical system.  Dry air is wrapping into the compact storm, mid- and upper-level shear are expected to increase over the system, and the forecast track will take ALBERTO over cooler waters in the coming days.  The way things look right now, ALBERTO probably loses his ‘tropical’ characteristics by mid-week.

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