Friday, May 11, 2012

Flash Flood Watch Continues

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Looks like we get a break for the rain this evening:  good news for LSU and Southern baseball as well as a number of high-school graduation exercises!!
Today’s rains finally took the form of a broad wave that moved through the BR metro area mainly during the 11am-3pm window.  Behind that east-bound wave, an area of moderately stable air will mean a reprieve from the rain for most of us through the evening and into the night.
But we anticipate a return of another round of showers and storms for Saturday -- we’re going with a 70% to 80% rain chance for the day, with some locally heavy rain possible through the day.
And Mother’s Day?  Looking much better than it did 24 to 48 hours ago - - our latest guidance now suggests that the main storm energy will exit to the east by late Saturday into early Sunday.  That doesn't mean a totally “dry” Sunday, but we think that the latter half of the day should be mostly dry and more cooperative for the outdoor BBQs or family dinners out!

Rain totals through the weekend - - including today - - still appear to be on the order of 1” to 2” for areas north of the I-10/12 corridor, with some areas getting upwards of 3” north of the interstate.  Totals will likely be greater for many locations south of the interstate corridor, with some 4”+ totals possible, especially over some of the coastal parishes.

Because of today’s developments, the NWS has cancelled the FLASH FLOOD WATCH for areas west of the Atchafalaya Basin, but the concern for heavy rains tomorrow has prompted the NWS to expand the FLASH FLOOD WATCH farther to the east.

The rest of the week looks mainly dry, with a slight chance of afternoon and evening showers at mid-week.  Note also in the extended that the week will see a slow-but-steady warm-up, with a return of the upper 80°s by week’s end.

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