Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Good Rain Chances Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

And the “warmer-than-normal” days just keep on coming ... in fact, the current outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggests that there is about a 75% chance that temperatures through July will continue to run “normal to warm,” so don’t be looking for any prolonged cool spells in the coming weeks.
May-June-July temperature outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The outlook shows a 39% chance of 'above-normal' temps, 35% chance of 'near-normal' temps, and 26% chance of 'below-normal' temps during the 3-month period.
Water demand by lawns and gardens tends to be a little higher with this kind of summer-like warmth, and many of you are looking for a little rainfall to break the recent run of mainly dry days.  It looks like about half or more of you are in luck, as our Wednesday afternoon forecast calls for a 50-50 chance of rain across the WAFB viewing area.
We’ll start Wednesday off with some clouds and patchy fog.  Sunrise temps for metro Baton Rouge will run in the mid to upper 60°s, a tad on the muggy side for this time of year and continuing a run of morning starts in the 60°s over the past several mornings.  To our southeast, a broad, non-tropical disturbance over the eastern Gulf will continue to track towards the central Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and that will be the weather-maker that generates scattered showers and t-storms through the afternoon and early evening.
Titan9 PrecisionCast projection for 1 p.m. on Wednesday showing scattered showers and t-storms around the area.
That disturbance will be rotating clockwise around the surface ridge of high pressure settled along the southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast.  The disturbance will continue to move inland Wednesday night into early Thursday, and it may provide just enough lift and instability to keep a few showers in the area overnight and into Thursday morning.
So we expect patchy fog returns with possibly a shower or two for Thursday morning.  As we get into Thursday afternoon, whatever is left of the disturbance will continue to move away from our area.  While the primary rainmaker will exit the region, we’ll still have the flow off the Gulf and plenty of daytime heating to interact with that Gulf air, so we’ll keep isolated afternoon showers in the Thursday forecast.
For now, the weather pattern becomes a little redundant for Friday and through the weekend: muggy mornings with patchy fog and sunrise temps in the 60°s with isolated afternoon showers and highs in the upper 80°s to near 90°. 
Factor in the humidity and it will have a summer feel to just about each and every afternoon!  Are you ready?

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