Thursday, August 29, 2013

Hot, More Humid by the Weekend

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

** Remembering 2005’s Katrina ... and it was one year ago today that Isaac produced most of ‘his’ southeast Louisiana impacts.
Katrina made landfall at 6:10am along Plaquemines Parish near Buras with peak winds estimated at 125 mph.  But in the end, it wasn’t Katrina’s winds that produced so much destruction along the Gulf Coast but the extensive storm surge and failed engineering defenses.  In the end, Katrina resulted in an estimated 1200 fatalities and losses in excess of $100 billion according to the National Hurricane Center. **

Closer to home ... today was a better August day than we had expected, with a comfortable morning low in the mid to upper 60°s and an afternoon high around 90°.  And maybe more importantly, dew points stayed lower than expected, ranging in the mid to upper 60°s through the day.
We will see a modest rise in dew points, but not until we are well into the day on Friday.  So plan on another comfortable morning for Friday: sunrise temps in the upper 60°s for metro Baton Rouge under mainly clear skies.  We do think that Friday will be a bit warmer than today, with temps climbing into the low to mid 90°s and a slight increase in humidity levels by the afternoon -- but still not oppressive.
The Labor Day weekend looks pretty good, although we still think that at least some neighborhoods could be flirting with afternoon highs in the mid 90°s for Saturday and again on Sunday.  Saturday stays mainly dry, but the humidity will have returned to more August-like levels.  By Sunday, the warmth and low-level moisture should produce some afternoon t-showers, with isolated afternoon rains also expected for Labor Day Monday.

We’re going with scattered mainly-afternoon rains for Tuesday and Wednesday, with a return to isolated rains for Thursday.
In the tropics, no threats at all for Gulf interests but there are a couple of areas to watch -- a wave located roughly 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and a vigorous tropical wave making its wave off the west coast of Africa.  The wave over the open Atlantic appears headed into a less favorable environment in the coming days and shows no imminent development potential.  As for the wave coming off of Africa, it may move into a somewhat favorable environment over the weekend.

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