Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Rains Continue into Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

It was a wet day for most WAFB neighborhoods today and it is looking like an even wetter day for Wednesday.
In fact, a line of storms along the LA/MS state line this afternoon has prompted at least two Severe T-Storm Warnings.
That line of storms will continue to move to the south and southeast this evening at about 10-15 mph, but we think that it will lose some of its energy as we head deeper into the evening hours.  We don’t expect to be dealing with a ‘severe’ threat tonight, but plan on scattered showers and even a few rumbles of thunder overnight and into the morning commute on Wednesday.  We’re calling for an early morning low of around 75° for the Red Stick on Wednesday.
As we mentioned, rain coverage should be even more widespread for Wednesday -- we’re calling for a 60% to 70% rain chance through the day ... and that might be on the conservative side of things.  Some WAFB neighborhoods could get up to around 90° for a high on Wednesday but many will stay in the 80°s thanks to the clouds and rain.  A few neighborhoods could see some brief, heavy downpours through the day, too.

A cool front currently to our north will continue to sag to the south in the coming days.  We expect the front to reach the coastal parishes by Thursday morning, putting much of the WAFB viewing area on the north side of the front during the day.  We’re going with scattered rains early on Thursday for metro Baton Rouge, with only isolated rains later in the day.
The frontal advance should deliver a slight cool-down with a nice dip in the humidity.  In fact, we’re calling for morning lows in the 60°s for many WAFB communities by Friday morning.  (The last time Metro Airport recorded a low in the 60°s was July 26.)
The big question becomes, “Just how far south will the front get?”  Our in-house PrecisionCast model pushes the front all the way out and over the northern Gulf, which would mean mainly-dry weather for Friday and Saturday.  Our hunch is that the model may be just a little over-aggressive – don’t be surprised to see the front stall closer to the coast.  Under that scenario, we’ll keep slight rain chances in the outlook for Friday and Saturday, but only in the “20% or less range.”

The front likely fizzles out on Sunday, allowing for a slow-but-steady return of Gulf humidity as we head into the early part of the work week.

In the tropics, we have a new “Invest” -- 92L -- in the west-central Caribbean as of this afternoon.  It’s the same area of disturbed weather we’ve been watching for the past couple of days.  92L certainly doesn’t look very organized at this stage and any development will likely be somewhat slow as it moves to the WNW.  We are awaiting some new computer model runs -- the current guidance is rather mixed on not only where 92L goes but also how well-developed it might become.  Stay tuned!

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