Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Sct'd T-Storms Again on Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

The same quasi-stationary front continues to linger over the Southeast U.S., providing a weak focus for afternoon showers and storms from the Carolinas to near Lake Pontchartrain.  What’s more, the remnants of the persistent boundary are likely to linger into Thursday or Friday, helping to fuel scattered rains and occasional t-storms through the rest of the week.
We’re going with morning lows in the low to mid 70°s, afternoon highs in the low 90°s, and scattered afternoon showers and t-storms right through the weekend and into next week.  But keep in mind that is just about “normal” for late August.
A weak easterly wave over the east-central Gulf may add to the afternoon instability just a tad for Wednesday afternoon, so we’ll post rain chances at 40% to 50% for tomorrow.   (By the way, why do we call them “easterly” waves?  Because they move in the low-latitude tropical flow -- generally from east-to-west.  The naming convention is similar to the way we label winds:  a north wind COMES from the north and GOES toward the south.)
Rain chances for the rest of the week will remain in the “scattered” category each afternoon, generally around 30% to 40%.  A few morning showers can’t be ruled out each day, but morning rains will mainly be confined to the coastal parishes.
In the extended outlook, the NWS is hinting that a “backdoor” cool front may try to slip into south Louisiana late Monday or early Tuesday,  but even if that does occur it will have little impact on our local August weather.  (Most of our cold fronts arrive from the west and northwest.  By “backdoor,” we mean a front that approaches the region from the northeast.)
Elsewhere in the tropics ... well, simply nada, at least for the time being!  We’re spying a couple of tropical waves over the Atlantic basin, but none are showing any potential for development at this time.  So let’s enjoy the “quiet” in the tropics while it lasts, since it is a sure bet that the “quiet” is temporary!

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