Passing rains in the early morning took a little punch out of the atmosphere for most of the area through the lunch hour but a quick warm-up combined with a “juicy”Gulf air mass provided the fuel for a second round of rains in the WAFB viewing area. Titan9 Doppler was showing scattered showers with a few embedded t-storms during the mid-to-late afternoon.
A warm front lifted to our north earlier in the day, allowing for a return of moist Gulf air over the region. The regional weather set-up also includes a non-tropical low in the northwestern Gulf, but that feature has not been much of a player today. At the same time, a Pacific cool front is entering the northwestern parishes this afternoon and evening and will continue to march our way overnight and into Wednesday morning.
We expect the main energy of the unstable Gulf air mass currently in place to shift to our east overnight. At the same time, the trailing end of the Pacific front slides through the viewing area on Wednesday, delivering a “drier” air mass with its passage. While we can’t entirely rule out a spotty shower or two along the coast for Wednesday’s morning drive, most WAFB communities can expect mainly fair skies for the morning drive.Wednesday afternoon is looking really good under clear skies. It will be “warmish” -- with highs running around 90° or so for many WAFB neighborhoods -- but dew points will drop into the low to mid 60°s for most of us by the afternoon. BR metro area lows will fall into the mid 60°s for Thursday morning with more sunshine and a “comfortably warm” Thursday afternoon on tap thanks to the “dry” air remaining in place.
Friday also stays rain-free under fair to partly-cloudy skies, but by Friday afternoon the winds will have come back around from the east-southeast, allowing for a return of some low-level Gulf moisture and a modest rise in dew points. Still, Friday afternoon and evening shape up to be the best we’ve seen in several Fridays, whether you’re headed out for some high school football, downtown’s “Live After Five,” or planning on watching the hot-air balloons in Gonzales.
Into the weekend? Saturday looks good too -- expect partly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 80°s to lower 90°s for most WAFB neighborhoods. We can’t say “no way” to a spotty shower or two on Saturday afternoon but with rain chances currently posted at just 10%, don’t let that affect your outdoor plans.
Even the Sunday outlook is shaping up better than it did yesterday. It’s all about the timing: we still expect our next front to be approaching on Sunday but the latest guidance suggests a slower advance. Based on the new projections, we’ll go with only isolated rains for Sunday afternoon and early evening, with increasing chances late Sunday into Monday as the front draws closer.
And there is absolutely nothing to report in the tropics. In fact, there are only two notable tropical waves currently over the Atlantic Basin and neither shows any potential for development at this time.