Monday, September 2, 2013

Better Rain Chances Arriving Tuesday

Happy Labor Day! Hopefully most of you have been able to enjoy an extended weekend.

If you were off today and using the time to be outdoors, it wasn’t a bad holiday weather-wise for most. Yep, it was hot and humid, with highs climbing into the low-mid 90°s, but rains have been pretty limited around the area.

However, better rain chances are in the forecast over the next several days as a weak cool front sags into the area from the north. We’ll go with a 40% - 50% chance of showers and t-storms each day from Tuesday into Thursday and highs in the lower 90°s. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the front ever makes it through for most of us, meaning hot and humid conditions will stay with us through the week.

By late in the week and into the weekend, the front should become diffuse and high pressure may begin to assert a little more influence on our weather. As a result, we’ll go with slightly lower rain chances from Friday into Sunday – approximately 30% each day.

We’re tracking a few features in the tropics today, but nothing that is of immediate concern to the local area. A tropical wave is moving into the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. While it won’t be able to do much while over land, there’s some potential that it could attempt to develop once back over water in the Bay of Campeche by late tomorrow. We’ll keep an eye on it, but for now, it doesn’t look like a major threat.

Farther out, we continue to track an elongated area of disturbed weather located near the Lesser Antilles. This system has been battling some dry air, but conditions could become a little more favorable for development in the next couple of days as it moves into the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center is currently giving it a 20% chance of development within the next 48 hours, but a 50% chance of development within the next 5 days.

Finally, another rather healthy tropical wave has emerged from the coast of Africa today. While conditions appear somewhat favorable for development, a number of systems in this area recently have tended to struggle. Either way, there’s plenty of time to watch it since it’s in the far eastern Atlantic.

History tells us to remain vigilant this time of year. Check out some of the hurricanes that have impacted south Louisiana from late August into early September (Aug. 26 - Sept. 10).

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