Thursday, September 26, 2013

Warm & Dry through the Weekend!

How about that morning start? Low to mid 60°s for many of us sure felt good under pretty blue skies. Yes, there may have been a few pockets of light fog in the greater metro area with areas of denser fog for several coastal parishes, but for most of us there were no problems for the morning drive.
Today’s highs reached the low 90°s for many WAFB neighborhoods as expected, but we enjoyed dew points staying in the low to mid 60°s through the day -- “drier” (less humid) than normal air even for September -- so the daytime warmth didn’t quite deliver that mid-summer feel.
Skies will stay mainly clear through the evening and overnight, with Friday morning lows expected to slip into the mid 60°s for metro Baton Rouge.
Plan on plenty of sunshine for Friday too. A few fair-weather clouds will develop as the winds work around to the ESE and SE by the afternoon, meaning a slow return of low-level Gulf moisture and a modest climb in the afternoon and evening dew points. Friday’s highs will return to the low 90°s again for most WAFB communities and the humidity will still be on the low side, so you can expect a warm but reasonably comfortable Friday evening around town or in your backyard.
And here’s more good news: we’re taking rain out of the forecast for Saturday and Sunday too. Sure, a spotty blip on Titan9 Doppler can’t be ruled-out over the weekend, but there’s not going to be enough rain anywhere in the viewing area to talk about. Highs both days will be up around the 90° mark and I think dew points stay in the upper 60°s -- not quite as “dry” as what we’ve enjoyed the past couple of days, but not getting too uncomfortable either.
Over the past couple of days, I’ve talking about a frontal system headed our way from the Pacific Northwest. In Wednesday’s extended outlook, I had the front arriving in our area on Monday producing scattered showers and t-storms. Our latest guidance suggests that the timing still looks about right but the system’s main upper-level support will be well to our north. In this ser-up, the front may not be as energetic as I previously thought. For the time being, we’ll keep scattered showers in the forecast for our Monday/Tuesday window and keep an eye on how the models evolve this system over the coming days.
And in the tropics, there’s not much to talk about. A large tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic is advancing towards the west. Although it may be somewhat impressive in terms of its overall size, it currently shows little potential for development, at least over the next few days. For now, the National Hurricane Center gives the wave virtually no chance for development over through the weekend and only a 20% chance over the course of the next five days.

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