Monday, June 16, 2014

Feeling Like Summer . . .

WAFB Storm Team QuickCast:
- hot, humid, summertime weather pattern through the week
- 20% to 30% rain chances each day
Summer may not ‘officially’ begin until Saturday (June 21st at 5:51am CDT) but this week will certainly have a summer-like feel to it weatherwise. The WAFB Storm Team forecast through the coming week remains essentially unchanged each day: morning lows in the low 70°s for most of us (mid to upper 70°s closer to the coast), afternoon highs in the 90°s (upper 80°s along the coast), and afternoon rain chances running around 20% -- to maybe 30% -- each day.
The ‘muggies’ will stay with us through the week and into the weekend with dew point readings generally near or above 70°. Morning commuters can expect patchy, mainly-light ground fog in the usual spots. For the afternoons, the combination of heat and humidity will push peak Heat Index readings up in the mid-to-upper 90°s range for many of us. And just like we’ve seen over the past few days, the majority of WAFB neighborhoods will stay dry each day (with our mainly-isolated afternoon thundershowers) but those that do get a storm overhead could be dealing with a serious downpour as rainshowers may be slow to move wherever they develop.
We are not expecting any frontal passages through the week, which means warm-and-moist Gulf air will remain in place with no relief from the afternoon heat and humidity unless you happen to be under one of the afternoon rainshowers and storms.
An upper-level ridge will remain over the southeastern U.S. while surface high pressure noses under that upper-air dome from the east into the eastern Gulf (the Bermuda High). While the upper-ridge will serve as an inhibitor to the onset of widespread rains this week, the surface pattern will maintain a southeast-to-southerly low-level flow off the Gulf. Given the daytime sunshine and steady inflow of Gulf humidity, we can expect to see ‘hit-or-miss’ (20% to 30% coverage)‘sea-breeze’ showers rolling from south-to-north through the viewing area each afternoon. Most or all of the action should end near or soon after sunset each day.
We started today with a few modest showers along the coast -- we can expect similar starts to the coming days. Under this kind of weather regime, we will often observe inland showers during the afternoon and pockets of showers over the coastal waters developing in the late night and pre-dawn hours. Some of those coast showers can slip northward into the coastal parishes early in the morning but usually dissipate by mid-morning.
And in the tropics … all remains quiet for the Atlantic Basin.

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