Sunday, June 15, 2014

Sunday (06/15) Tropical Update

Here is your tropical update for South Louisiana for June 15th, 2014.

The start to the Atlantic hurricane season 2014 has been a fairly quiet one.

The Pacific Basin is already through its third named storm after major hurricane Christina formed in the Eastern Pacific.

You'll notice some cloud cover over towards Central America.  That is a very broad trough and is expected to move inland over the next day or so.  So nothing to worry about there.  The National Hurricane Center in Miami, FL is continuing to give the all clear for not only the next 2 days but also the next 5 days.  No tropical cyclone formation is even hinted at on short and medium range models.

Typically in June we keep our eyes on 3 distinct areas for possible tropical formation.

1) The Gulf of Mexico
2) The Western Caribbean
3) The SW Atlantic / Bahamas

10 DAY OUTLOOK: ***(DISCLAIMER: 10 day outlook is a long range forecast and can change rapidly and should NOT be accepted as "gospel" truth but only a small possibility and something to keep an eye on over next several days.)***
If you remember last week we mentioned a possible spin up of a tropical system according to the GFS (American) model.  The GFS was out on a limb as it was the only long range model indicating any development within the 10-14 day outlook.  The GFS placed a system in the Gulf of Mexico during the middle of what has become this week.

GFS Model for Thursday June 19th @ 6:00 PM
The latest, and past several, GFS model runs have backed off completely of developing anything remotely tropical over the next 14 days (the length of the model).  As you see in the image above the GFS has only normal shower activity in and around the Gulf of Mexico by mid week.

None of our other weather models are indicating any kind of development either.  So we appear to be in the clear for the next two weeks at this time.

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