Tuesday, June 17, 2014

- no significant changes to the forecast through the next five days, at least
- hot & humid afternoons continue into the weekend
- staying with 20% to 30% rain chances each day
Not much to talk about really: “What you see is what you get.” Looks like we are locked into a daily pattern of humid Gulf air, daytime heat, and afternoon ‘hit-or-miss’ thundershowers. The forecast numbers for the rest of the week are just about ‘normal’ for June and there’s nothing in the short-term forecast that appears ready to change it up.
So here it is -- and it’s not really any different from yesterday: morning lows in the low 70°s for most of us (mid to upper 70°s closer to the coast), afternoon highs running around 90° to 92° (upper 80°s along the coast), and afternoon rain chances running around 20% to 30% -- each day. Factor in the heat and humidity and you can expect Heat Index readings at or above 90° for several hours with peak afternoon Heat Index numbers in the mid to upper 90°s. And don’t forget, the Heat Index is the ‘feels like’ temperature in the shade -- direct sunshine can add another 10° or more to the ‘apparent’ temperature.
(By the way, if you are thinking that this you read virtually the same thing yesterday, you’re right!)
The near-steady inflow of Gulf air will keep dew points near or above 70° through the week. That comes with a daily early-morning forecast for patchy, mainly-light ground fog. Fair to partly-cloudy skies during the first half of the day will become partly-cloudy to a sun/cloud mix by the mid-afternoon for most WAFB neighborhoods as daytime heating works the moist and unstable Gulf air to generate an abundance of cumulus clouds. Some of those clouds will grow into rainmakers.
The upper-level ridge that I showed you on Monday afternoon an evening persists over the southeastern U.S. and the current guidance keeps it there through Friday, at least. That upper-air dome will continue to limit the onset of widespread afternoon rains through the remainder of the work week but will not fully stop the development of a few healthy thundershowers each day. The moist-and-unstable Gulf air is getting a lifting boost from the daytime heating, and a few of those vertically-developing clouds will pop-through the ‘capping’ effect of the upper-level ridge.
Result: a 20% to 30% coverage of mainly-afternoon rains with a few lightning strikes mixed- in for a few WAFB communities. And just like the past couple of days, whatever rains do develop wind down near sunset each day.
All looks good (quiet) in the tropics for the time being. A couple of tropical waves are evident on satellite imagery, but there is far too much shear on-going over the basin for any waves to show an organizing trend for now. That’s not uncommon this early in the Hurricane Season. The bigger question is, “Will an El Niño develop later this summer and help to maintain a hostile, shearing environment?”

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