Sunday, June 29, 2014

Sunday (6/29) Tropical Update

Here is your tropical update for South Louisiana for June 29th, 2014.

All has been quiet this hurricane least for the Atlantic Basin.  But it appears we might be seeing our first tropical system of the season.  An area of low pressure has moved off the coast of Georgia / Florida this weekend.  This broad area of low pressure is not a tropical depression at this time (5:00 PM CDT).  But appears to be getting more and more organized every day.

The National Hurricane Center has classified this disturbance as Invest 91L.  91L is expected to stay in the Western Atlantic slowly drifting South/Southwest.  The NHC is giving this system a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance over the next 5 days.  Now the good news for South Louisiana is that whatever (if anything) develops is not expected to impact Louisiana or the Gulf of Mexico for that matter.

Model plots continue to indicate a slow drift to the SW before a gradual turn to the North and then Northeast through this week.  This is because the primary steering current will be a trough that will be moving from west to east.  It will block this system from making any westward progress by the middle of the week.  But as it carries it North, the system may clip coastal sections of the Carolinas.

As for intensity...I expect this system to be very slow in getting organized.  Dry air is in the general area and there remains some wind shear in the upper levels.  This should keep this system fairly weak over the next few days.  This is illustrated by our Tropical PrecisionCast.

Tropical PrecisionCast is a high resolution short range model.  It shows a weak area of low pressure sitting off the coast of Florida Tuesday morning.

Image Credit NCAR and can be found at:
About half of the early cycle weather models indicate slow strengthening of this system.  We also don't have complete agreement on tropical storm status being reached.  The GFTI (subset of GFS model) keeps it below Tropical Storm strength.  The GFS or American model which has been the most aggressive tropical formation model so far this system has been very quiet as it pertains to this system showing little if any development.

The European model has been the primary long range global model showing development of this system.  The ECMWF has a possible tropical storm skirting the East Coast July 4th into the holiday weekend.

So here's what you need to know:
1) This system will have NO direct impact and is not headed towards South Louisiana
2) Travel along the East Coast could prove difficult for 4th of July
3) First named storm of the season would be Arthur

10 DAY OUTLOOK: ***(DISCLAIMER: 10 day outlook is a long range forecast and can change rapidly and should NOT be accepted as "gospel" truth but only a small possibility and something to keep an eye on over next several days.)***
The long range models indicate a quiet outlook minus this system previously discussed.  In other words no new systems are expected/indicated.

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