All in all, it was another nice spring day across the area, with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 70°s. A few stray showers have been spotted on Titan 9 Doppler Radar at times, but most of us have remained dry through late afternoon. That all changes tonight into Wednesday…
A trio of features -- a potent upper-level low, a nearly stationary front in the northern Gulf, and developing low pressure in the western Gulf – will lead to widespread rain and a few t-storms over the next 36 hours. Isolated showers will remain possible this evening, but look for rains to increase late tonight, with most of us in on the wet weather by daybreak on Wednesday.
Periods of rain and a few t-storms will be possible through the day on Wednesday, although there are some indications we could see somewhat of a break later in the day. In addition to the rainy weather, plan on a breezy and cooler day, with highs only reaching the mid to upper 60°s.
Fortunately, severe weather doesn’t appear to be much of a threat with this system, although a few strong storms can’t be ruled out closer to the coast. And what about rain amounts? Well, it feels a bit like throwing darts in terms of rainfall projections this afternoon. Our model guidance is all over the board, with one model projecting under a half-inch in Baton Rouge and another projecting nearly 3 inches of rainfall! For now, let’s plan on much of the area receiving .50” to 1.50” over the next couple of days, with a real potential for some higher amounts, especially closer to the coast. In fact, I would say 1.5” to 2.5” is more likely for our immediate coastal parishes.
Pretty good rain chances persist into Thursday morning, but rains should begin to exit to our east by Thursday afternoon. Below-normal temperatures that set in tomorrow will continue through Friday and even somewhat into Saturday. The good news is that the weekend – including the first installment of Live After Five this Friday – will be dry.
Warmer temperatures, along with a few showers, are expected to return by early next week.