Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Showers, T-Storms Late Thursday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

Breezy and muggy conditions under mostly cloudy skies was the rule again today for the WAFB viewing area, and don’t expect any big changes in the coming 12 to 24 hours.  We did see a few blips on Titan9 Doppler radar this afternoon, but those should fade away later in the evening.
We’ll stay under mostly cloudy skies through the night and into Thursday morning, with another muggy start at or above 70° for the Capital City.  And like last night, the winds will stay sufficiently active to minimize any serious fog threat even with the humid air mass in place.
The weather does start a significant change-up later on Thursday evening and into Friday as our next cold front pushes across the Bayou State.  Timing of the first rains on Thursday remains a bit up in the air – for now we’re going with a 30% rain chance for Thursday afternoon and early evening with rain chances rising rapidly later into the evening and overnight.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center posts a “SLIGHT RISK” for severe weather during the overnight and early morning hours (Thursday into Friday) for just about the entire WAFB viewing area, with the threat mainly in the form of damaging winds.  In addition, the latest NWS projections call for 0.5” to 1.0” of rain for most WAFB communities.

What is a bit disappointing is that the latest runs from our in-house RPM model and the European model continue to keep clouds and even some lingering “backside” rains (overrunning rains, behind the surface front) well into Friday afternoon.  So the clear-out will be somewhat slow at best, but you will notice the difference after the front moves through in the morning.  After highs in the 80°s for each of the past three days, most of us won’t get out of the 60°s on Friday afternoon!  With luck, the rains will be gone before “Live After Five” … but it will be noticeably cooler for the 5-8 pm window compared to recent Fridays.
The weekend shapes up to be nearly perfect: low humidity, cool mornings with sunrise temps in the 40°s and afternoons under sunny skies with highs in the 70°s.  Make some outdoor plans -- and grab the sunscreen!

Temps will rebound to around 80° for next Monday and Tuesday, with our next cool front currently scheduled to arrive at mid-week.

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