A busy day weatherwise for Thursday: mostly cloudy, warm and muggy, with winds sustained above 20 mph and gusts into the 30s for much of the afternoon. And that’s not all -- rains will be rolling into the viewing area later this evening with showers and t-storms on the ‘weather menu’ through the overnight hours.
As of 3PM, an east-bound cold front had already passed through Shreveport and Natchitoches. The front was moving to the east at about 20 mph -- at that rate, it would be over the Baton Rouge metro area before midnight.
Also as of 3PM, the NWS had a Tornado Watch in effect (until 11PM) to the north of the WAFB viewing area, extending from NE Louisiana into western and central Mississippi. A series of Tornado and T-Storm Warnings were issued along and just ahead of the front in the Watch zone.
Although the severe storms are currently well to the north, there remains a “SLIGHT RISK” for severe weather in the WAFB viewing area later tonight and early tomorrow according to the NWS Storm Prediction Center. As is currently true north of us, any Warnings that are issued tonight for the WAFB region will be prompted by t-storms just ahead of the front, and once the front passes the threat will effectively come to an end. The primary threat will be damaging winds; hail and a tornado or two, although unlikely, cannot be completely ruled out.
Current rain-total projections are running in the 0.5” to 1.0” range for most WAFB communities.
While we expect the front to move through BR metro area by or before midnight, the clear-out behind the front looks like it will take some time. We’ll have to watch the weather trend through the evening and overnight as our guidance models are still not in complete agreement in terms of post-frontal weather. For now, we’re anticipating clouds for the viewing area at sunrise with a few “backside” (post-frontal) showers. The rains should come to a complete end for metro BR by mid to late morning (ending later to the east of Baton Rouge) with clearing underway through the afternoon as a cool and very-dry air mass takes charge.
Did we say cool? How about cold -- at least by mid-April standards. Our current forecasted low for Saturday morning is 40°, which would tie the record for the day (April 20th). And we’ll have another morning in the 40°s for Sunday too! The weekend is looking like a real beauty -- after the chilly starts, we’ll climb into the 70°s under sunshine for both Saturday and Sunday afternoon, with low humidity in place. Sunday’s Earth Day celebration in downtown BR should be a big winner!
Into the extended outlook, our next cool front and rain chance arrives during the latter half of Tuesday into Wednesday.
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