Friday, March 14, 2014

Rains Likely by Early Sunday

WAFB Storm Team QuickCast:

- mainly dry for Saturday’s ‘Wearin’ of the Green’ Parade
- widespread showers & t-storms by early Sunday
- much cooler by Monday

For the second morning in a row, many of us woke up to temperatures in the 30°s. However, the chilly morning start gave way to a mild afternoon as highs approached 70° in most WAFB neighborhoods. And as expected, clouds have returned compliments of a southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico.

Clouds will stick around through the overnight and we’ll have the chance for a little patchy light fog by sunrise on Saturday. Southerly winds will result in a much warmer morning, with lows only expected to dip into the mid 50°s.

Wearin' of the Green Parade

Overall, it looks like a pretty good day for Baton Rouge’s ‘Wearin of the Green’ Parade. Look for mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 60°s as the floats begin to roll at 10 a.m. We can’t rule out a stray shower during the parade, but odds are pretty low that there will be any significant rainfall to deal with. Temperatures will climb to around 70° or a little above by the time the parade winds down.

Rains by Early Sunday

Much better rain chances are expected late Saturday night into Sunday morning as an upper-air disturbance moves in from the west. Widespread showers and t-storms are expected to move in during the overnight hours and extend into Sunday morning. While the Storm Prediction Center has trimmed back the ‘Slight Risk’ of severe weather to remove most of Louisiana, a few strong storms still can’t be ruled out.

The most significant rains of the weekend are expected with that wave that pushes through early on Sunday, but scattered showers and isolated t-storms will remain possible through the day on Sunday as we await the arrival of a cool front. In fact, isolated showers could even extend into Monday morning. Rain totals through the weekend should average between .50” and 1.50”, but locally higher amounts are certainly possible where storms develop.

The front should move through most of the WAFB viewing area well before sunrise on Monday, leaving us with a much cooler day in its wake. Monday’s highs will likely struggle to reach the mid 50°s as clouds linger for a while behind the front.

Skies should finally clear by Monday night and that could allow areas near and north of Baton Rouge to once again dip into the 30°s by Tuesday morning. For now, our guidance keeps all of the viewing area above freezing on Tuesday morning.

Extended Outlook

The remainder of next week looks to be fairly quiet weather-wise. Mainly dry conditions are expected after Monday and temperatures should be near or slightly below normal.

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