Friday, March 21, 2014

Sct'd Showers, A Few Storms This Weekend

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB Storm Team QuickCast:

- scattered showers, a few storms through the weekend
- staying relatively warm on Saturday
- turning cooler Sunday into early next week

As expected, it was a cooler start this morning with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees lower than what we woke up to on Thursday. Additionally, there were areas of fog in our southern parishes that prompted a Dense Fog Advisory from the National Weather Service. Once the sun came up though, we saw a quick warm-up with afternoon temps approaching 80 degrees in some WAFB neighborhoods!

Clouds will increase later tonight and we could once again see some areas of fog to start out on Saturday. Additionally, some of our high-resolution model guidance is hinting at rains getting an early start on Saturday, so we can’t rule out a few showers to start the day. Otherwise, the temperature seesaw goes back in the warm direction, with lows in the mid to upper 50°s.

Umbrellas This Weekend

We’re confident there will be several opportunities for rainfall over the next few days, but not very confident in timing out the showers and t-storms. We’ll go with scattered showers and a few t-storms on Saturday, with rains possible at just about any point in the day. Assuming some breaks in the clouds, highs should again climb into the mid to upper 70°s.

A cold front arrives by Sunday morning, resulting in a somewhat cooler second half of the weekend. Rains will be possible along the front in the morning, but scattered showers will also be a possibility into the afternoon behind the boundary as a series of upper-air disturbances slides west-to-east along the Gulf Coast.

And the gloomy weather continues into Monday as a similar pattern remains in place. The front will be stalled in the northern Gulf while upper-air disturbances will continue to lift moisture up-and-over the parked boundary. That means clouds and scattered showers will continue to plaque the area. It will also be quite a bit cooler, with lows in the mid 40°s and highs in the lower 60°s.

Staying Cool Next Week

Any rains should come to an end by early Tuesday, with skies clearing by the afternoon. Below-normal temperatures will continue through much of the week, with rain chances back in the forecast by Thursday and Friday.

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