Saturday, March 15, 2014

Slight Risk for Severe Weather Early Sunday

The weather models are starting to come into better agreement tonight as to the possibility of some severe weather moving through the area early Sunday morning.  This still doesn't appear to be a widespread event with only a few iso'd strong to severe t-storms.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to put the entire WAFB viewing area under a slight risk for severe weather.  Because of this being an overnight threat, it is a good idea to keep on your weather radios in case a watch or warning is issued in your area.  Remember that a watch means conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather and a warning means severe weather conditions are currently being observed or are imminent.

The primary risk will be strong damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.  The threat for tornadoes and hail appear low at this time, but not completely out of the question.

Timing of this event for metro Baton Rouge appears to be around 4 AM with earlier times west of Baton Rouge and later times east of Baton Rouge.  For instance New Roads and Clinton 2 to 3 AM, Gonzales and Walker 5 AM, and Hammond and Napoleonville 6 AM.

You'll note that Titan 9 PrecisionCast indicates a couple of embedded t-storms within a broken line of showers and t-storms.  Some storms could become strong to severe.  This continues to lead to the idea that any severe weather would be an isolated event and not an area wide issue (severe squall line).  Other short range models like the NAM and HRRR also indicate this solution.

The models are also in pretty good agreement on rainfall total predictions.

Majority of the weather models have been trending down today in terms of the amount of rainfall expected through Monday morning.  Only the ECMWF (European) model is showing an increase in rainfall projections over the last few model runs.  Based off of current radar trends and short range model data, I'm more inclined to go with an average rainfall amount of 0.50" with a few isolated spots (those seeing t-storm activity) being closer to 1".

The wet weather is not finished after the morning hours though.  Overall coverage will diminish leaving behind only sct'd showers and iso'd t-storms to be dealt with Sunday afternoon and evening.  We should be completely dry by daybreak Monday morning.

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