Monday, March 24, 2014

Staying Relatively Cool Through Wednesday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

WAFB Storm Team QuickCast:

- clearing skies tonight, cooler wake-up
- sunny & cool for Tuesday
- upper 30°s for many on Wednesday morning
- rains return for Thursday and Friday
We saw a few sprinkles early in the day over the Baton Rouge metro area and Doppler has been showing passing showers near and just south of the coast for much of the day.  Those pockets of rain -- staying mainly just offshore -- are courtesy of a fairly active southern branch of the jet stream (the Sub-Tropical Jet), which is moving essentially west-to-east over the northern Gulf region.

Below-Normal Temps Through Wednesday

We expect the clouds to continue this afternoon’s “thinning” trend with skies becoming mainly clear by Tuesday morning.  At the same time, cooler and less-humid air will continue to filter into the region from the north through the night and into Tuesday morning: that should take the Capital City into the low 40°s with some morning starts in the 30°s for areas north and east of the Red Stick.  Tuesday afternoon should be a fine one under sunshine and blue skies but temps will remain below-normal for Tuesday afternoon, topping out in the upper 60°s.
Cool-and-dry Canadian air continues to spill into the Gulf Coast region through Wednesday morning, taking Baton Rouge down into the 30°s for the day’s start under fair skies.  However, clouds will be building into the central Gulf Coast through the day with mostly cloudy skies keeping temps down in the low to mid 60°s for afternoon highs.

Rains by Late Week

A warming trend sets-in as the winds come around and off the Gulf by Thursday but that comes with increasing rain chances as well.  A disturbance to our west will combine with the next cold front headed our way to make for good rain chances for Thursday and especially Friday.  While it is still a little too early to assess the severe weather threat towards the work week’s end, available early indicators suggest that we could see rains of 0.5” to 1.0” over the two-day period.

Extended Outlook

70°s will hold through the weekend.  We’re carrying a very slight chance of rain in the forecast for early Saturday, but after that it all looks good for the rest of Saturday and all day Sunday!

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