Sunday, March 2, 2014

Strong Storms Overnight. Sleet Early Tuesday?

Let's start with the more immediate threat.  A slight risk for severe weather remains in place across South Louisiana and SW Mississippi for overnight Sunday and predawn hours Monday.  A squall line is expected to form in East Texas and West Louisiana and push East across the viewing area fairly rapidly.

Our Titan 9 PrecisionCast is pinpointing the line moving through the metro Baton Rouge area around 2 AM.

With this being t-storms driven primarily by a squall line, the main storm threats look to be damaging winds and maybe some hail the size of quarters.  The threat for tornadoes remains very low.  The stormy weather will exit the area by the time we hit sunrise.  So as you go to bed tonight make sure you have your weather alert radio on and the batteries are fresh as the threat for severe weather arrives while most will be sleeping.  The cold front will have passed by the morning start which means temperatures will begin plummeting.  Expect temperatures in the mid 40°s during the morning hours with maybe a slight warm up by afternoon in the low 50°s.  Winds will be brisk from the north keeping a definite chill to the air.

That chill remains in place for Mardi Gras Tuesday.  In fact our Titan 9 PrecisionCast is indicating a chance at seeing some sleet early Tuesday.

I must state that this is not a definite situation.  The chance for any wintry precip Tuesday morning remains very slight at this time.

Another reliable short range weather model, (North American Model), does not indicate any wintry precip early Tuesday.  Both models are picking up on a mid level disturbance that will pass over the stalled cold front in the Gulf of Mexico.  The big difference is timing of this storm system.  PrecisionCast has it overhead during the late morning hours while the NAM moves it through during the late afternoon.  Because this storm system hasn't even formed yet, forecast confidence is very low at this time.  Therefore we can't completely rule out some sleet mixed with rain early Tuesday.  It appears though that surface temperatures will remain just warm enough to prevent any accumulation if any sleet does in fact fall.  Stay tuned for further updates as we refine the forecast Monday.

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