Thursday, October 24, 2013

A Bit Cooler Friday & Saturday

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

As we mentioned over the past two days, we’re awaiting the arrival and passage of our next Canadian front.  We’ve got the timing set at passage through the overnight hours with the front over the northern Gulf waters by Friday’s sunrise.  Not only is this going to be a “dry” frontal passage but it may progress without so much as a line of clouds!  What it will do is deliver a reinforcing dose of cool-and-dry Canadian air as we head into the weekend.
The front’s impact will be rather modest early on Friday, so our morning minimums will not be too much different than what we saw early this morning -- in fact, many neighborhoods will have sunrise temps on Friday running a degree or two warmer than this morning.  But by the afternoon, the effects of the Canadian air will be evident, with highs only reaching the low 70°s for the Red Stick compared to today’s highs around 80° or so today.
All looks just about perfect for Friday evening’s “Live After Five” as well as Friday night high-school football: clear skies for the evening with 5PM temps in the upper 60°s and temps by 8PM already down to the upper 50°s to low 60°s for many.  You might want to grab the long-sleeves if your headed to area high school games.

By Saturday morning, we’ll get the full effect of the cooler air mass from the north, with lows dipping into the low to mid 40°s along the I-10/12 corridor.  Many WAFB neighborhoods near and north of the LA/MS state line will have sunrise temps in the upper 30°s.
However, the notable cool-down will be relatively short-lived.  The high pressure core of the cool air mass will be moving to the east through the weekend, allowing afternoon highs to rebound into the mid 70°s for Saturday and upper 70°s for Sunday.  The other minor bug-a-boo with the weekend is the forecasted development of a disturbance over the Southern Plains.  The GFS and ECMWF both hint at the WAFB area being on the far eastern edge of the rain shield, giving us a slight chance for showers on Sunday.  For now, we’ll post a 10% chance and see how the models look tomorrow.

By early next week, many of us will be back to highs in the 80°s for Monday through Wednesday as southeasterly flow sets-up in response to a developing frontal complex over the Central and Southern Plains.  Prior guidance suggested that the mid-week front could be entering Louisiana on Wednesday, but the latest depictions from the NWS Weather Prediction Center delay the arrival until Thursday.
We’ll go with isolated-to-scattered mainly-afternoon showers on Wednesday with scattered rains and highs back to the 70°s for Thursday.  It’s too early to get the young’uns nervous just yet, but we’ll watch the weather outlook closely for Thursday -- after all, it will be Halloween!

Elsewhere ... the National Hurricane Center said its official “goodbye!” to LORENZO at 11AM this morning as the system was deemed to no longer have a tropical structure.  What is left of LORENZO is expected to dissipate in the next day or so and/or be absorbed by a cold front heading its way.  And there is nothing else worth mentioning in the tropics at this point.

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