|Model Projections through 6 AM Wednesday|
A decent cluster of models continue to show a significant turn to the NE with a possible brief landfall in Plaquemines Parish in extreme SE Louisiana. It would then continue towards the Alabama or Florida coast. There are still several models still indicating a landfall along the central Louisiana coast. So what are these models seeing? Well the left sided cluster is indicating a weaker Karen that will move faster to the north. This will not allow an approaching trough and cold front from picking it up and carrying it farther east. If this were to occur the worst South Louisiana and metro Baton Rouge would see would be sustained winds of 25-35 mph with higher gusts. Rainfall totals of 2" would be possible too. This would only last for about 12 hours.
|Current position of possible steering currents.|
|Forecasted position of steering currents very early Sunday.|
Think of the trough or front as a blocking mechanism. Karen will then get picked up by the trough and move quickly NE towards Alabama and Florida.
So what can South Louisiana expect with this forecast. Tropical storm forced winds will be anticipated late Saturday into Sunday along the extreme SE coast of Louisiana. This would be more or less for the New Orleans area, St. Bernard,Terrebonne, Lafourche, and Plaquemines Parishes. We can also expect to see some storm surge in these areas too.
|Storm surge projections from National Hurricane Center|