Wednesday, October 23, 2013

October at its Prime!

The forecast for the remainder of the week continues to be outstanding, with mainly sunny skies expected through the rest of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. We can expect 40°s and 50°s for the morning starts each day through Sunday. While many WAFB communities will see highs up around 80° for Thursday, afternoon highs for the rest of the week and through the weekend will stay in the 70°s. “Dry” continental air will remain in place throughout, making for mild afternoons.
To borrow a well-known line from an old commercial, "It just doesn’t get any better than this!”
I’m making two very modest changes to the forecast through the weekend. First, I am reducing the amount of the end-of-week “cool-down” -- highs on Friday and Saturday will only slip to the mid 70s instead of yesterday’s forecast which called for highs around 70° for both days. With the latest guidance suggesting that the core of the week-ending cool air will bypass us a bit to the north, I’ll say mid 70°s for both afternoons under mainly sunny skies. Yep, not quite as cool as I thought yesterday but that’s still prime-time weather!
The other change is that I’ll grudgingly enter a very slight chance of rain into the forecast for Sunday -- a measly 10% rain chance for the afternoon, hardly worth the mention.
As we head into Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, afternoon highs will return to something closer to 80° or so, with dew point temps returning to the upper 50°s to low 60°s. So yes, maybe a blip or two pop-up on Titan9 Doppler during those afternoons, but for now we’ll keep the rain chances at well under 20% for all three days.
Our extended outlook still calls for a cool front to enter Louisiana early on Wednesday. We’re getting some mixed signals from our extended outlook guidance as to just how energetic that mid-week front will be. For now, let’s call it “scattered showers and a few t-storms” for Wednesday -- we’ll keep a watch on how that evolves over the coming days, but it’s just not something to give much thought to at this point.
T.S. LORENZO has weakened today and that trend is expected to continue tonight and tomorrow.  Strong westerly shear has pulled most of the thunderstorm activity well to the southeast of LORENZO's center. The official NHC forecast has LORENZO weakening to a tropical depression by Thursday and then losing ‘his’ remaining tropical character by Friday. Regardless, LORENZO poses no threats to land.

No comments:

Post a Comment