Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Cool Front Arrives Tonight

By Jay Grymes & Steve Caparotta

A band of showers rolled through much of the viewing area during the late morning, but the rest of the day has remained dry for most of us.  Yes, there have been a few passing showers on Titan9 Doppler this afternoon, but barely enough to even mention.
A modest cool front is working its way through Louisiana and should be over the southeastern parishes by Thursday morning.  Rain chances will be on the rise after midnight tonight -- and it looks like you’ll probably need the wipers for the Thursday morning drive.  We’ll start Thursday with temps in the mid 60°s for Baton Rouge and scattered rains – but these will be mainly light to occasionally moderate showers.  So don’t expect any real downpours nor much, if any, lightning and thunder for Thursday morning.

Thursday’s rains should taper-off in the afternoon as the front slowly creeps east and southeast, but we’ll stay under mostly-cloudy skies.  Expect Highs on Thursday in the upper 70°s - - maybe even approaching 80°, depending on just how much sunshine can sneak through the afternoon clouds.
Thursday night into Friday morning should be dry for the most part, with Friday morning minimums in the upper 50°s for metro BR.  Unfortunately, scattered but mainly-light rains return for Friday afternoon.  The Thursday cool front will stall over the coastal waters on Friday and begin lifting back into the coastal parishes as a warm front, setting us up for “overrunning” clouds and showers.  But just like Thursday, we aren’t expecting any active or stormy weather on Friday afternoon.
However, heading into Friday night and especially Saturday morning, the rain picks up in both coverage and intensity.  The warm front and its surface low will be moving through the coastal parishes by Saturday morning.  At the same time, a Canadian cold front will be tracking from northwest to southeast across the state, with the two boundaries likely meeting-up late Saturday along the central Gulf Coast.

We’ll keep a slight rain chance into Saturday night and early Sunday, but Sunday afternoon should be a nice one -- fair to partly cloudy, less humid and highs in the mid 70°s for Baton Rouge.
The guidance gets a little mixed after that, but we’re going with a partly cloudy Monday before the next cold front arrives on Tuesday.  For now, we’ll stay with scattered showers and t-storms on Tuesday, with scattered rains lingering into Tuesday night and everything clearing out by or before Wednesday afternoon.
... and in the tropics, nothing of any real concern anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.

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